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Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Volyn Region

19.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Volyn region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 34% see the situation as calm in their home region and 40% in their own city or village. Almost 65% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 28% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 46% and 52% of respondents consider the situation tense, while only about 10% describe it as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement more negatively, at 20%, than that of the region, at 28%, or their own city or village, at 32%. The state of local affairs is assessed more positively in the regional center, as well as by representatives of the younger generation.
Despite negative assessments of the overall situation, expectations for the future among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 7–9% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe it will remain unchanged, while one quarter of respondents have optimistic expectations.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 66%, is the most significant nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 47%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 43%. Low income, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in smaller settlements, while the issue of the military conflict concerns residents of Lutsk more.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 23.4% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 15.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 11.2%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 8.3% each, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.3%, and Oleh Liashko by 6.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate choice.
One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by more than one and a half times. Thirteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 15% in 2017. Around 5% consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory likely. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is primarily demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Nearly 42% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 24.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote. UKROP is supported by 15.1%, the Servant of the People party by 11.5%, Civic Position by 8.2%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 7.6%, the Radical Party by 7.5%, Self-Reliance by 5.4%, and the All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” by 3.8%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 90%, their focus on solving national problems, cited by 71%, and their socio-economic program, cited by 66%, are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while 41% stated that the presence of a strong team is more important to them. Another 53% choose a candidate based on their experience in public administration, while for 44% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important. The latter is most relevant for younger voters and supporters of Zelenskyi and Vakarchuk. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 50% opt for stability, while 46% are more inclined toward change.
Forty-four percent of respondents believe that the situation will not change as a result of the elections, while 36% expect it to improve. Only 9% expect deterioration. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko more often note expectations of positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level, at 42%, is higher than at the local level, at 28–32%. Another approximately half of respondents allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Fifteen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Sixty-three percent oppose this type of campaigning. Younger respondents and poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Thus, 18% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more, at 22%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged at 30%, while satisfaction with the performance of city or village heads has decreased slightly, from 47% to 42%. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center, while satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration is somewhat higher among residents of Lutsk.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption overall in Ukraine than in the region or at their place of residence. Forty-four percent believe that the situation with bribery has either not changed or has worsened at the central level, while 31–33% report growth at the local level. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. At the same time, year-on-year dynamics show a negative trend across most criteria, with the exception of the condition of roads and the fight against crime, where assessments have slightly improved. The situation in school education is rated the best, while the fight against bribery at the local level is rated the worst.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. All areas of opportunity are assessed higher by residents of Lutsk, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents.
Only about 8% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Almost 45% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, while 6% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of the regional center and young people assess growth potential more positively.
The absolute majority of respondents, at 87%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Even more feel proud to be residents of their region, at 91%, and of their city or village, at 92%. Most often, respondents cite nature, at 50%, as the object of pride in their region. Thirty-one percent are proud of the history of their land, 22–23% of local culture and traditions, 16% of local residents, and 11% of the region’s natural resources.
About 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 18% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every third representative of the older generation and of the poorest segments of the population considers themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Lviv and Rivne regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and Belarus.
More than 30% expressed a desire to start their own business. Five percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A slightly higher level of desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 17% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% indicated they would like to engage in trade. Ten percent each would like to engage in farming or construction and repair.
Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has not changed, remaining at 35–36%. Sixty-one percent of them stated that in the future they are ready to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 55%, residents of small towns, at 36–40%, and wealthier respondents, at 49%.
Eighty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Ten percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions. The absolute majority of respondents, at 86%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite view.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains high at 77%, as does support for accession to NATO at 65%. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 67%. Over time, the number of those supporting Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased from 16% to 23%. Only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ivano-Frankivsk Region

19.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Ivano-Frankivsk region between November 16 and December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 35% consider the situation calm in their home region and half of respondents in their own city or village. Two thirds of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 27% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 39% and 51% consider the situation tense, while only 6–9% describe it as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development more negatively, at 13%, than that of the region, at 25%, or their own city or village, at 32%. Assessments of the direction of development of both the country and the region are particularly critical among rural residents, while attitudes toward the direction of development of one’s own city or village are almost equally critical among residents of small towns and villages. Across age groups, assessments are almost equal, though somewhat more negative views are expressed by middle-aged respondents.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 10–13% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. More than half believe it will remain unchanged, while every fifth respondent has optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 68%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 43%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 50%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 46%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, rising prices, and tariffs are felt more acutely in the regional center, while corruption and unemployment are more pressing in small towns and villages.
The leaders of the presidential rating in the region are Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.5% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections, and Oleksandr Shevchenko, supported by 21.8%. Anatolii Hrytsenko is supported by 11.9%, Petro Poroshenko by 11.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 8.7%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 7.6%, and Andrii Sadovyi by 4.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 22.9% of residents of the region have not decided on their candidate choice.
Every fifth respondent in the region believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by one third. Thirteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 11%. Oleksandr Shevchenko is seen as the winner by 9%, while Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Anatolii Hrytsenko are each cited by 4%. Fewer than 2% of respondents believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. More than 40% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 23% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party UKROP is supported by 19.6%, Civic Position by 10.5%, Servant of the People by 9.3%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9%, and All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” and Self-Reliance by 8.8% and 8.2% respectively. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice, and every seventh does not intend to vote.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 90%, is the motive that has the most decisive influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For two thirds, the personal leadership qualities of the candidate are significant. For 59%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical change in the country is important, while 36% state that ensuring stability is more important to them. Fifty-eight percent choose based on the candidate’s socio-economic program and the same share based on the candidate’s orientation toward solving national problems in general, while for 35–37% ideological views and the candidate’s focus on solving both national and regional problems are more important. The choice between experience in state politics and belonging to the generation of “new politicians” stands at 56% versus 37%. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
Almost one third of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. A slightly larger share of respondents, at 35%, believe that the situation will not change, while 15% claim that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Petro Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote. Almost half of the latter expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level, at 49%, is higher than at the local level, at 32%. Another approximately 40% allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
Every tenth respondent has a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Seventy percent oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of the regional center are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thus, only 13% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, nearly the same share are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities. Assessments are somewhat less critical in small towns.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration decreased slightly, from 27% to 23%, while satisfaction with the performance of city or village heads, on the contrary, increased somewhat, from 41% to 46%. Residents of the regional center are the most satisfied with the performance of local leaders, with their share exceeding 60%.
Respondents more often notice an increase in corruption overall in Ukraine than in the region or at their place of residence. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Only between 5% and 9% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments are given to personal safety and crime prevention, school education, and the condition of roads. In year-on-year dynamics, most criteria show negative trends, particularly in school education and the fight against bribery, or no change at all. An exception is agricultural development, where assessments have improved. At present, respondents express the most negative views regarding the state of the environment and forest conservation.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship are assessed relatively higher by residents of the regional center. The lowest assessments across all opportunities are given by the oldest and poorest respondents.
Every tenth respondent sees high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, while 5–6% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationwide and locally. Residents of the regional center and young people assess growth potential less critically.
The absolute majority of respondents, at 86–87%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine and residents of their region and their city or village. Most often, respondents cite traditions, nature, and the history of their region, at around 50%, as sources of pride. Nearly one third are proud of the culture and arts of their region. One in five takes pride in culinary traditions and local residents, while 13% cite notable people of the region.
Eighty percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 14% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every fifth older person and every third respondent with a low income consider themselves unhappy.
More than half of respondents in the region noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv region, and about one third to residents of Ternopil region. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves closest to Poland.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. More such respondents are recorded in small towns, among middle-aged individuals and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, one in five stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 32% would like to engage in trade. Another 17% are interested in tourism, 11% each in the hotel business and the beauty and wellness industry, and 10% in construction as well as entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad has changed little, increasing from 44% to 46%, while half of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, and 35% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth and middle-aged respondents, at 63% and 57% respectively, residents of small towns, at 51%, and respondents with high and medium income levels, at around 50%.
The absolute majority, at 94%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Similarly, the same share of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased slightly, from 89% to 87%, while support for integration into NATO fell significantly, from 87% to 78%. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector remains dominant. At the same time, the dynamics here are negative, declining from 89% to 80%. The number of respondents who cannot decide on this issue has increased. Every tenth respondent continues to support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from both Russia and the West. Only 1% support accession to the Customs Union.
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Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kherson Region

19.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kherson region between November 16 and December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region generally assess the situation in the country poorly, while evaluating conditions at the local level somewhat more positively.
Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 8% consider the situation calm in their home region and 15% in their own city or village. Fifty-eight percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 38% as critical. At the local level, between 62% and 69% of respondents consider the situation tense, while about 20% describe it as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development more negatively, at 10%, than that of the region, at 15%, or their own city or village, at 21%. Residents of the regional center assess the situation at the local level more positively than the situation in the country as a whole.
Overall expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. More than half believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and at the local level, will not change next year. Between 11% and 13% have optimistic expectations about the future. At the same time, about one quarter believe that the situation will worsen.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74%, is considered the main nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 63%, low wages and pensions, cited by 48%, and rising prices for goods, cited by 47%. Problems such as rising prices, unemployment, and increasing crime are felt more acutely in rural areas, while low wages and pensions are more pressing in cities.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 16.9%, Yurii Boiko by 12.4%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.9%, Oleh Liashko by 8.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 6.1%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 4.6%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate, and every fifth does not intend to participate in the elections.
Every fifth respondent believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has more than doubled. Ten percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 20% last year. Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi as the winner, and 3% believe Yurii Boiko will win. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is expressed mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Half of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 22.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 14.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 11.2%, Civic Position by 9.6%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 8.5%, the Radical Party by 8.2%, and UKROP by 6.0%. Other parties have ratings below 5%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, and the candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 63%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-five percent choose a candidate primarily for leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 51%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical change is important, while 43% say it is more important to ensure stability in the country. Orientation toward solving both national and regional problems is equally important for 46–47% of respondents. For 51%, experience in state politics is more important, while 43% emphasize the importance of the candidate belonging to the generation of “new politicians.” This motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Muraiev.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine as a result of the upcoming presidential elections will not change. One quarter believe it will improve, and the same share believe it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided.
According to about one third of respondents, there is a significant likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at both the local and national levels. Another approximately half allow for minor falsifications.
At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-seven percent take a neutral position on this issue. Fifty-three percent oppose this type of campaigning. Younger and older respondents, as well as wealthier individuals, are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region are mostly dissatisfied with the performance of both local and central authorities. Fourteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 10% with President Petro Poroshenko, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada.
Satisfaction with the performance of local authorities stands at 11–13%. Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration and city or village heads has practically not changed. Among rural residents, satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher.
About one third of respondents observe an increase in corruption both in Ukraine as a whole and in the region or at their place of residence. More than half believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Only 3–4% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Over the year, for most criteria, respondents observed mainly no change. Improvements were noted in the agricultural sector. A decline in satisfaction was recorded regarding industrial development and social protection. The condition of school education and the development of agriculture were rated the highest, while industrial development was rated the lowest.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to find a job was rated the lowest. Residents of small towns and villages assessed the level of opportunities higher than those in the regional center, with the exception of job search. In addition, younger and wealthier respondents rated all opportunities more positively.
Only 2% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one third assess the potential as moderate. Nearly half see low potential, while 10–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Younger and middle-aged respondents, as well as residents of the regional center, assess economic potential somewhat more positively.
Sixty-eight percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy to seventy-one percent feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village. The younger the respondent, the higher the level of pride expressed. Most often, respondents cite nature, at 47%, and the history of their region, at 37%, as sources of pride. Twenty-four percent are proud of regional traditions, 20–21% of local residents and landmarks, 17–18% of notable people and culture, and 10–14% of sports achievements, agriculture, and natural resources.
About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while nearly 30% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every sixth representative of the older generation considers themselves unhappy. Among poorer respondents, nearly half feel unhappy.
Residents of the region more often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Belarus, Russia, and Poland.
Twenty-eight percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 4% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, two thirds stated that they do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 5% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 30% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, 9% in construction and repair, and 8% in auto services. Six percent each mentioned entertainment and leisure, tourism, and transport services, while 5% mentioned the hotel business, catering, and the beauty industry.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased somewhat from 31% to 36%. Among them, 47% are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 42% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth, at 55%, rural residents, at 42%, and respondents with average income levels, at over 40%.
Sixty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seventeen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 13% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
More than half of respondents, at 55%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Thirty percent hold the opposite view, while 15% were unable to answer.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased somewhat from 43% to 48%. Support for NATO membership remained unchanged, with 29% in favor and 47% opposed. At the same time, the number of supporters of the Customs Union decreased from 17% to 11%. Integration with the EU is supported by 40%, while 30% continue to advocate equal distance from both the EU and Russia.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv

18.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the city of Kyiv from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the city. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that Kyiv residents assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation in their own city.
Only 8% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while at the city level almost one in five respondents consider the situation calm. At the same time, more than half of respondents view the situation both in the country and locally as tense, and every third to fourth respondent considers it critical and explosive.
At the same time, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development almost equally both at the national level, at 20%, and at the level of their own city, at 23%. Assessments of development directions are somewhat less critical among representatives of the middle age group.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among Kyiv residents are rather positive-neutral. About 40% believe that the situation will not change, and one in six has optimistic expectations for the future. Nevertheless, one in five respondents expects that the situation both in Ukraine and in Kyiv will worsen next year.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 73%, is the main nationwide problem according to Kyiv residents. Thirty-nine percent also indicated bribery and corruption as a problem at the state level. At the personal level, in addition to the war in the East, cited by 37%, respondents are concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 39%, and low wages and pensions, cited by 35%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, rising prices and tariffs, insufficient social protection, and the inability to receive quality medical care are more significant for the older generation, while problems related to the war in the East, corruption, unemployment, and unfavorable conditions for business development are more important for youth and people of middle age.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 20.4% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Fifteen point seven percent are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko, 13.5% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 8.4% for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 7.7% for Yurii Boiko, 6.2% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and 4.7% and 3.3% for Yevhenii Murayev and Oleh Liashko respectively. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, almost a quarter of Kyiv respondents have not decided on a candidate, and one in six does not intend to vote.
At the same time, almost 22% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections, and over the past year the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Seventeen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 18%. Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi as the winner. Fewer than 2% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. More than 40% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 20.8% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Thirteen point three percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 12.3% for the Servant of the People party, 7.8% for Civic Position, 6.0% for the Opposition Bloc, 5% each for Samopomich and the Nashі party, and 3.6% and 3.2% respectively for Svoboda and the Radical Party. The rating of other parties is below 3%. At the same time, almost a quarter of city residents have not decided on a party choice, and the same share does not want to vote.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, and their focus on solving the country’s problems, cited by 65%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 54% and 53% respectively, the candidate’s socio-economic program and personal leadership qualities are important, while for 27% and 26%, ideological views and the presence of a strong team are more important. Half of respondents choose a candidate primarily because of their experience in public policy, while for 38% belonging to the generation of “new” politicians is more important. The choice between the ability to ensure radical change or stability in the country split respondents almost evenly, with a slight tilt toward change, at 46% versus 40%.
More than a quarter of respondents, at 28%, expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. One third believe that the situation will not change, while 16% say it will worsen. Another quarter of respondents are uncertain in their forecasts. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who have not decided or do not intend to vote. Among the latter, nearly 40% expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in presidential elections is equally possible at both the national and local levels, at 45% and 43% respectively. Another third allow for minor falsifications.
At the same time, 16% of Kyiv respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. One in five takes a neutral position on this issue. About 60% oppose this type of campaigning. The poorest segments of the population are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
City residents assess the performance of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Thus, only 18% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly fewer, at 16%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 70% expressed dissatisfaction with the activities of central government bodies.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the city mayor has decreased, from 39% to 28%. Respondents from the younger age group are relatively more satisfied with the mayor’s performance.
Respondents note an increase in the level of corruption equally both in Ukraine overall and in the city, at 38–39%. More than 40% of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 6–7% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. Relatively better assessments were given to school education and road conditions. At the same time, in year-on-year dynamics, a negative trend or lack of change is observed for the absolute majority of criteria. Assessments significantly worsened in the areas of school education, healthcare, ecology, and the fight against bribery. The latter sphere was rated the worst by respondents.
Among opportunities in the city, respondents rated the opportunities to find a job, rest and spend leisure time, and achieve success the highest. The lowest ratings were given to living safely and engaging in entrepreneurship. Youth and wealthier respondents assess the level of opportunities most positively.
Eleven to thirteen percent of Kyiv residents see high economic development potential for Ukraine and their city over the next 5–10 years. Almost one third assess it as moderate. The same share assess this potential as rather low, and 9% see no prospects for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine as a whole or in Kyiv specifically. People of middle age assess growth potential somewhat more critically.
The overwhelming majority of respondents, at 70%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, and an even larger share, at 74%, are proud to be residents of Kyiv. Most often, respondents cite the city’s history as the object of pride, at 52%. Forty percent are proud of nature, one third of culture and art, and one quarter of landmarks. One in five is proud of culinary and local traditions, and another 15–16% of local residents and sports achievements.
Seventy percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one in five holds the opposite view. Naturally, younger and wealthier respondents more often reported personal happiness.
More than half of Kyiv respondents noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of the Kyiv and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, city residents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Poland, and Russia.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. One in ten stated that they are already entrepreneurs. There are more such respondents among youth and people of middle age, as well as among those with middle and high income levels. Among those wishing to start their own business, 29% would like to engage in trade. Almost one in ten would consider doing business in IT, catering, or tourism, and 8% each in construction and repair, as well as entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the number of those expressing a desire to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 36% in 2017 and 35% in 2018. At the same time, almost half of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 39% are not ready. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among youth and people of middle age, at 51% and 37% respectively, as well as among those with middle or high incomes, at 40% and 46%.
The majority of respondents, at 65%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seventeen percent support granting the Russian language state status throughout Ukraine, and another 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
More than two thirds of respondents, at 69%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. At the same time, 17% hold the opposite view, and 13% have not decided on an answer.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, at 63%, and NATO, at 57% in 2017 and 56% in 2018, has remained almost unchanged. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector continues to lead. At the same time, against the backdrop of a decrease in the number of those choosing the EU as the preferred integration vector, from 59% to 56%, the number of supporters of Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased, from 23% to 25%. Only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.
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Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv Region

18.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Kyiv region from November 16 to December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 21% consider the situation in the region calm and 53% in their own city or village. Seventy-one percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 18% as critical. In the region, 62% consider the situation tense, while in their own city 34% do so; only about 8–10% consider the local situation critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement, at 15%, and that of their home region, at 16%, worse than that of their own city or village, at 25%. Residents of urban settlements and people of middle age are somewhat more optimistic in these assessments.
Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 17% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. The overwhelming majority, around 44%, believe that the situation will not change. Between 9% and 11% believe that the situation will worsen. One third of respondents cannot predict how the situation will change over the year. City residents are more skeptical in these assessments.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 73%, and corruption in government, cited by 54%, are the two largest nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 44%, inflation, cited by 43%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 41%. Low income, high prices, and medical services are noticeably more concerning personally for rural residents, while corruption and crime are more acute for urban residents. At the same time, at the level of national problems, political troubles such as war and corruption concern rural residents somewhat more.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 26.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 13.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.9%, Oleh Liashko by 5.3%, and Yurii Boiko by 4.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. More than one third of respondents have not decided on a candidate choice.
One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased more than twofold. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, compared to 19% in 2017. About 5% consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory likely, while around 2% see victory by Anatolii Hrytsenko or Oleh Liashko as likely. No more than 1% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-five percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 28.7% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. The Servant of the People party is supported by 15.8%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 10.1%, Civic Position by 8.0%, the Radical Party by 5.6%, and the Opposition Bloc by 4.0%. Other parties have ratings of no more than 3%. Every third respondent has not decided on a party choice. Every sixth respondent does not intend to vote.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, their personal leadership qualities, cited by 66%, their socio-economic program, cited by 65%, and their orientation toward solving the country’s problems, cited by 59%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, for 30% attention paid by the candidate to their region is also important. Additionally, 55% focus on the candidate’s experience in politics, while 35% stated that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important, which is more relevant for younger voters and supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. On the question of change in the country, respondents’ opinions are evenly split: 42% consider ensuring stability important, and an equal 42% consider radical change important.
Thirty percent believe that the situation in Ukraine as a result of the upcoming elections will not change, and another 30% believe it will improve. Only 10% speak of deterioration. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often than others note expectations of positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents consider electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level likely, 30% at the regional level, and 26% in their own city or village. Another approximately 35–45% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Sixteen percent believe that there will definitely be no falsifications in their settlement.
At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-one percent take a neutral position, while 61% oppose this type of campaigning. Wealthier respondents are somewhat more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Thus, 14% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more, at 16%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged, at 21–23%, and is lower than the level of satisfaction with the work of city or village heads, which increased over the past year from 40% to 50%. Rural residents are somewhat more satisfied with the work of local heads than urban residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption overall in Ukraine, at 39%, than in the region or at their place of residence, at 23–28%. Between 42% and 46% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption in the country and the region, while 10% reported a decrease in their own settlement.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres. Overall, the situation in school education, safety, and roads is assessed relatively better. In year-on-year dynamics, indicators related to safety, road conditions, ecology, agriculture, social protection, youth support, and industrial development have slightly increased, while indicators related to healthcare and the fight against corruption have declined. The latter sphere was rated the worst by respondents.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to find a job, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by wealthier and younger respondents, as well as by urban residents.
Only 9–10% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 36% assess the potential as moderate. Between 22% and 24% see low potential, and only 6% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Urban residents assess growth potential somewhat more positively.
Seventy-four percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while even more, at 77%, feel proud to be residents of their region and 78% of their city or village. People of middle age feel pride somewhat less often. Most often, the object of pride in their region is nature, cited by 61%. Forty-eight percent are proud of the history of their land, 44% of culture and art, and 37% of traditions. About 20% also feel proud of the region’s natural resources, notable people, landmarks, and local residents.
More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, every fourth representative of the older generation and every third from the poorest group consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of the capital. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Belarus, and to a lesser extent to Poland and Russia.
About 40% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 44% do not have such a desire. Ten percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start their own business, 25% indicated they would like to engage in trade, 13% in construction and repair, and 11% in tourism.
Over the past year, the level of desire to work abroad among residents of the region has remained almost unchanged, at 31–32%, while the number of those who definitely do not want to do so has slightly decreased from 65% to 61%. Fifty-four percent of those who want to work abroad are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 27% are not ready. Higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 50%, and wealthier respondents, at 45%.
Sixty-eight percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nine percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, while 19% support granting Russian state language status.
The absolute majority, at 77%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Thirteen percent hold the opposite view, and 10% were unable to give an answer.
Fifty-six percent support accession to the European Union, while 21% do not support it, compared to 27% in the previous year. Fifty-two percent support accession to NATO, while 24% oppose it, the same as in 2017. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 51%. Twenty-seven percent support maintaining equal distance from the EU and Russia. Only 5% support accession to the Customs Union, which is half as many as in 2017.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Vinnytsia Region

17.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Vinnytsia region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 35% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 49% in their own city or village. Nearly 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 32% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: from 39% to 47% view it as tense, and only 7–11% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development worse, at 11%, than that of the region, at 21%, or their own city or village, at 26%. Residents of the regional center assess the situation more positively both in the country and locally, especially in their own city.
Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Fifteen to sixteen percent have optimistic expectations for the future, both in Ukraine and locally. More than half believe that the situation will not change, while about 16% expect deterioration next year. Residents of villages and smaller towns hold more optimistic views on this issue.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 78%, is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. Thirty-seven percent also consider bribery and corruption in government to be a problem. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 57%, rising utility tariffs, cited by 51%, and inflation, cited by 45%. At the personal level, lack of access to medical care and unemployment are felt more acutely in smaller settlements, while tariffs and low incomes are more pressing in the regional center. Among national-level problems, residents of the large city are more concerned about political issues.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 23.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Eighteen point five percent are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko, 11.4% for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 9.5% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 7.2% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 6.9% for Oleh Liashko, and 5.8% for Yurii Boiko. The rating of other candidates is below 5%. At the same time, every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
About 22% believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has more than doubled. Fifteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is slightly lower than the previous year’s figure of 18%. About 3.5% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-three point four percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 26% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Seventeen point eight percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 11.0% for Civic Position, 8.3% for the Servant of the People party, 7.7% for the Radical Party, 5.5% for Samopomich, and 5.3% for the Opposition Bloc. The rating of other parties is below 3%. One quarter of respondents have not decided on a party choice.
About half of respondents, when making a presidential choice, are guided by the candidate’s personal leadership qualities, cited by 52%, socio-economic program, cited by 51%, political experience, cited by 49%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU, cited by 48%, and the ability to ensure stability in the country, cited by 47%. At the same time, for about 35%, the candidate’s team, ideological views, ability to ensure radical changes in the country, and focus on regional problems are important. Another 39% are guided in their choice by the candidate’s belonging to the generation of “new” politicians; this motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. Although 48% support European integration, when asked about foreign policy sympathies more than one third could not give an answer, while another 17% supported a pro-Russian orientation of the candidate, most often among voters of Yurii Boiko.
Thirty-six percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 10% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko more often expect positive changes than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 59%, is slightly higher than in the region, at 54%, or in their city or village, at 51%. Another approximately 22% allow for minor falsifications.
Only 11% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twelve percent take a neutral position on this issue, while the majority, 74%, oppose this type of campaigning. City residents and respondents with lower income are more favorable toward such assistance. People of middle age assess such campaigning more critically.
Residents of the region assess the performance of central authorities differently. Thirty percent are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, while 64% are dissatisfied; the most positive assessments of his work come from residents of Vinnytsia. The activity of Petro Poroshenko was positively assessed by 15%, while 78% are dissatisfied, and only 4% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, while 80% are dissatisfied. The level of satisfaction with local leaders is higher than with regional authorities: 23% are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration, which is 4 percentage points lower than last year, while 45% are satisfied with the work of local heads. Residents of Vinnytsia assess the activity of local authorities more positively.
Respondents more often see an increase in corruption nationwide, at 52%, than in the region, at 42%, or at their place of residence, at 35%. About 40–50% of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 2–5% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. The best assessments concern road conditions, personal safety, school education, and ecology. In year-on-year dynamics, the situation regarding road conditions has improved. The greatest deterioration is observed in ecology, the fight against corruption, and youth support. Other spheres have remained largely unchanged. Respondents speak most negatively about the fight against bribery at the local level and about youth support.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the opportunities for recreation and leisure the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. The level of all opportunities is rated highest in Vinnytsia. Younger and wealthier respondents rate the level of all opportunities higher than older and poorer respondents.
Five to seven percent see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess it as moderate. Another 33–34% see low potential, and 11–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine or locally. Residents of the regional center assess the development potential of their settlement somewhat better, while residents of villages assess the potential of the country and region more positively. The youngest respondents are the most optimistic in their assessments.
The majority of respondents, at 77%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Even more feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village, at 83% each. Most often, respondents cited the history and nature of their region as objects of pride, at 43–44%. Thirty-five percent are proud of regional culture, 30% of traditions, 22% of landmarks, and 17% each of natural resources and residents of the region.
More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 23% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. Nearly one third of the older generation consider themselves unhappy. Among the poorest respondents, nearly half consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr regions. Among neighboring countries, residents most often chose Belarus and Poland as close, and somewhat less often Russia.
Almost 30% expressed a desire to start their own business. Five percent stated that they are already entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, 60% said they do not have such aspirations. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among younger respondents, wealthier individuals, city residents, and those with a middle income level. Among those wishing to start their own business, 30% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, and about 9–10% in businesses related to entertainment and leisure or the beauty and health industry.
Over the past year, the number of those who expressed a desire to work abroad has slightly increased, from 33% to 37%. At the same time, 55% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 31% are not ready. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 62%, and wealthier respondents, at 51%.
Seventy-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twelve percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 8% support granting Russian state language status.
The majority of respondents, at 71%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 18% hold the opposite view and 11% have not decided.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly increased, from 59% to 62%. Support for accession to NATO has remained almost unchanged, at 48–47%, while the number of those opposed has slightly decreased, from 30% to 26%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 58%, compared to 53% in 2017. Support for Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has decreased year-on-year, from 37% to 27%. Only 3% support Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union.

Press

Ukrainians about New Year holidays

17.12.2018

According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, nearly 70% of surveyed Ukrainians have a tradition of giving gifts on St. Nicholas Day. About 30% do not have such a tradition.
The largest number of supporters of the tradition of giving gifts on St. Nicholas Day is in the western regions of Ukraine, where more than 80% follow it. In the central and southern regions, about two thirds of respondents do so, while in the eastern regions this figure is about half. This tradition is more strongly supported by rural residents, young people, and more financially secure respondents.
Forty-three percent of respondents indicated that they believe in St. Nicholas, compared to 37% in 2016. At the same time, half of the respondents stated that they do not believe in him. The highest level of belief in St. Nicholas is observed in the western regions, where 63% believe in him, while in other regions slightly more than one third do so. The younger and more financially secure the respondents are, the more likely they are to believe in St. Nicholas. Interestingly, more than half of respondents aged 30 to 50 reported believing in St. Nicholas. Belief is also more common among women and residents of rural areas.
In turn, one quarter of surveyed Ukrainians believe in Ded Moroz, while almost 70% do not believe in him. Younger and more financially secure Ukrainians are more likely to believe in Ded Moroz.
More than 40% of respondents named New Year and Christmas as their favorite winter holidays. For another 7% of respondents, St. Nicholas Day is their favorite holiday, while 3% named Old New Year. Only 3% said that they do not like any of the listed holidays. Over the survey period, the share of those who consider New Year their favorite holiday has decreased, from 49% in 2011 to 43%.
In the southern, eastern, and central regions, New Year is more popular, while in the western regions, Christmas is the favorite holiday. A greater preference for New Year is observed among men, urban residents, younger respondents, and those with higher incomes. Accordingly, Christmas is more popular among rural residents, older respondents, and women.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ternopil Region

17.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Ternopil region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 9% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 45% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 62% in their own city or village. Almost 61% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 22% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the state of affairs are somewhat better: between 25% and 40% of respondents view the situation as tense, and only about 5% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development worse, at 18%, than that of the region, at 31%, or their own city or village, at 38%. Residents of small towns in the region assess the direction of development of both the country and their local area less critically.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will worsen next year. More than half of respondents believe that it will not change, and almost one quarter have optimistic expectations about the future. A higher level of positive expectations is observed among residents of cities in the region.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 78%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 49%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 61%, low wages and pensions, cited by 57%, and rising prices and inflation, cited by 55%.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 21.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Fifteen point seven percent would vote for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 12.6% for Petro Poroshenko, 10.9% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 7.7% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 6.8% for Oleh Liashko, 5.5% for Oleksandr Shevchenko, 4.3% for Andrii Sadovyi, and 3.0% for Ruslan Koshulynskyi. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
About 20% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections, compared to 13% in 2017. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, compared to 17% in 2017. About 4% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Nearly 33% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 23.7% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Fifteen point seven percent are ready to vote for Civic Position, 11.9% for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 10.5% for Svoboda, 9.3% for the Servant of the People party, 6.2% for UKROP, 6.1% for Samopomich, and 5.4% for the Radical Party. The rating of other parties is below 4%. At the same time, nearly one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of the candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 83%, and the candidate’s personal leadership qualities, cited by 65%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 40% stated that ensuring stability is more important to them. Fifty-six percent choose a candidate rather because of their experience in state politics, while for 40% it is more important that the candidate belongs to the generation of “new” politicians. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, Oleksandr Shevchenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi. For 51%, the socio-economic program of the candidate is important, while 42% stated that ideological views matter more to them. Orientation toward solving the country’s problems is a motive for choice for 55% of respondents, while for 36% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems.
Forty-three percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Twenty-eight percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 9% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleh Liashko more often expect positive changes than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 36%, is higher than at the local level, at 9%. Another approximately 40–55% allow for minor falsifications.
Only 7% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Fourteen percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 70% oppose this type of campaigning.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Sixteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 11% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 4% with the activity of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has slightly decreased, from 26% to 22%. Forty-six percent stated that they are satisfied with the activity of the city or village head. The level of dissatisfaction with local heads among rural residents is lower than among residents of cities in the region.
Respondents more often see an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. Forty to fifty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–7% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. At the same time, in year-on-year dynamics, assessments for most criteria have either improved or remained unchanged. The best dynamics are observed in ecology, road conditions, and agriculture. Respondents rate the situation in school education, safety, and ecology relatively better. The worst assessments concern industrial development, youth support, and social protection.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to relax and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, and finding work are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center and small towns, while living safely is rated higher in villages.
Respondents rate the economic development potential of Ukraine, at 17%, higher than that of the region, at 10%, and their own city or village, at 9%, over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the economic potential of the country and localities at a medium level. About one quarter see low potential. Three to four percent see no opportunities for economic growth in Ukraine and the region. Twelve percent see no growth potential for their settlement, most often in small towns and villages.
The overwhelming majority of respondents, at 78%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy-nine percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and 82% of their city or village. Older respondents demonstrate a somewhat higher level of pride. Most often, respondents cited nature, at 45%, regional traditions, at 43%, and history, at 42%, as objects of pride. Thirty-one percent are proud of culture and art, 25% of local residents, 16% of landmarks, 15% of natural resources, 13% of prominent figures of the region, and 10% of cuisine and culinary traditions.
Seventy-three percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 15% hold the opposite view. Residents of cities, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every sixth rural resident and every fifth representative of the older generation considers themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and, to a lesser extent, Belarus.
Thirty-two percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Four percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among city residents, younger, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, nearly one quarter stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 34% would like to engage in trade, 15% in farming, 13% in construction and repair, and 11% in car service.
Over the past year, the number of those expressing a desire to work abroad has slightly decreased, from 45% to 42%. At the same time, 50% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Traditionally, a higher level of migration intentions is observed among youth, at 65%.
An absolute majority, at 95%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Only 3% support granting the Russian language any official status.
An absolute majority of respondents, at 92%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 2% hold the opposite view.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly increased, from 77% to 83%. Seventy percent continue to support accession to NATO. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 73%, while 14% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Lviv Region

17.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Lviv region from November 16 to December 7, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region and the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 43% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 59% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Nearly 70% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 23% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 30% and 43% of respondents consider the situation tense, and only about 5–7% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (25%) than that of the region (37%). Almost half of respondents note a positive situation in the settlement where they live. Relatively better assessments of the direction of development of both the country and the region are observed among residents of small towns.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the situation in the country and the region, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only one in five to one in six respondents believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. Almost half believe that the situation will not change, while one in five has optimistic expectations for the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (79%) and bribery and corruption in government (53%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, rising utility tariffs (50% each), and rising prices for basic goods (49%). Rising prices for basic goods are felt more acutely in rural areas and other towns of the region.
Among those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections, the leaders of the presidential rating are Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 16.7% are ready to support, Petro Poroshenko with 15.5%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko with 14.8%. Andrii Sadovyi would receive 10.4% of the vote, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 9.9%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi 6.8%, Oleksandr Shevchenko 6.1%, and Oleh Liashko 4.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
One quarter of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will win the presidential election. Seventeen percent are confident in the victory of Yuliia Tymoshenko. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of the victory of both candidates has doubled. About 6% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is primarily shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Yurii Boiko. Half of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings among those who have decided and intend to participate in elections, Batkivshchyna leads with 18%, followed by Civic Position with 16.6% and Samopomich with 15%. European Solidarity would receive 13.4%, Servant of the People 7.3%, and UKROP and Svoboda 6.6% each. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (86%) and the candidate’s personal leadership qualities (62%) are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 42% say ensuring stability is more important. Fifty-one percent choose a candidate primarily because of their socio-economic program, while 41% consider ideological views more important. Fifty-three percent emphasize the importance of a candidate’s focus on solving national problems, while 41% focus on solving both national and regional problems. For 54%, experience in state politics is more important, while 38% highlight belonging to the generation of “new” politicians. This latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk.
Thirty-one percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-eight percent believe the situation will not change, and only 12% think it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (50%) is higher than at the local level (21%). About 40% allow for minor fraud at the local level, and one third at the national level. At the settlement level, one quarter believe elections will be fair.
Nine percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Seventy-one percent are opposed to this form of campaigning. Less affluent respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Twenty percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share are satisfied with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 10% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are found in rural areas.
Over the past year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has increased (from 22% to 35%), as has satisfaction with the work of city or village heads (from 38% to 54%). Satisfaction with the activity of the regional administration is higher among residents of small towns.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Between 40% and 50% believe the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–8% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are generally dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were given to school education, road conditions, and public safety. Over the year, most indicators show positive dynamics or no change, with the greatest improvement seen in road conditions and safety. A decline was recorded in social protection. The worst-rated area is the fight against bribery.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and for finding a job the highest, and entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure and success are rated higher by residents of the regional center, opportunities to find a job and engage in entrepreneurship by residents of Lviv and small towns, and safety by rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 7–9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. More than 40% assess it as medium. More than one third see low potential, and 6–9% see no prospects for economic growth at all. Residents of the regional center and younger respondents assess growth potential more positively.
The absolute majority of respondents (84%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (87%) and of their city or village (88%). The older the respondent, the higher the level of pride. Most often, respondents cited local traditions and regional history (53–54%) as sources of pride. Culture and art are mentioned by 44%, nature by 31%, landmarks by 25%, prominent people by 17%, local residents and cuisine by 14% each, and natural resources and science and education by 10% each.
Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 14% think otherwise. Urban residents, younger, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. Conversely, one in five representatives of the older generation and one in four among the poorest consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel the greatest closeness to Poland, and somewhat less to Belarus and Slovakia.
One third expressed a desire to start their own business. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. At the same time, nearly half did not express such a desire. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 28% would like to engage in trade, 19% in construction, 15% in tourism, 13% in entertainment and leisure, and 11% in public catering.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to work abroad. Over the past year, this share has not changed. At the same time, 55% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 27% do not plan to do so. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%) and wealthier respondents (44%).
Ninety percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seven percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and only 1% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
The absolute majority of respondents (92%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 5% hold the opposite opinion.
Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to NATO has slightly increased (from 73% to 78%). Support for accession to the European Union stands at 85% (82% in 2017). Among various directions of foreign economic integration, 80% support accession to the EU, 12% support equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 1% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Khmelnytskyi Region

17.12.2018

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Khmelnytskyi region from November 16 to December 5, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 9% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 36% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 54% in their own city or village. Forty-six percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 41% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the state of affairs are somewhat better: between 35% and 47% of respondents view the situation as tense, and only about 10% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse, at 10%, than that of the region, at 24%, or especially their own city or village, at 40%. More optimistic assessments of the direction of local development are observed among residents of the regional center.
Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. From 20% to 24% believe that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve. About half believe that the situation in general will not change. Twenty-two percent believe that the situation will worsen in Ukraine, while with regard to the local level such respondents range from 11% to 14%.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 84%, is the main nationwide problem according to respondents. Thirty-six percent also consider corruption in government to be a national problem, and 32% each point to low income and unemployment. At the personal level, respondents are most concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 61%, rising utility tariffs, cited by 56%, and inflation, cited by 48%. Among personal problems, residents of Khmelnytskyi city are more concerned about tariffs and inflation, while for rural residents more significant problems are low income, corruption, the military conflict, and unemployment.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 23.1% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. About 14% are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko, 8.0% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 6.6% for Oleh Liashko, 5.2% for Oleksandr Shevchenko, 4.9% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 3.7% for Yurii Boiko, and 3.4% for Ruslan Koshulynskyi. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, almost every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
About 23% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is slightly less than last year, when it was 18%. No more than 4% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 37% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 22.4% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Eleven point three percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 11.0% for Civic Position, 9.3% for Svoboda, 6.8% for the Radical Party, 6.1% each for UKROP and the Servant of the People party, 4.2% for the Agrarian Party, 4.0% for Vidrodzhennia, 3.8% for Samopomich, and 2.7% for the Opposition Bloc. The rating of other parties is below 2%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of the candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 69%, focus on solving the country’s problems, cited by 63%, the socio-economic program, cited by 61%, and experience in state politics, cited by 59%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Political experience plays a smaller role for supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, as well as for younger respondents. For 55%, the personal leadership qualities of the candidate are important, while 40% stated that the presence of a strong team is more important to them. The choice between ensuring stability and radical change divided respondents equally.
Thirty-five percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-eight percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 11% state that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often than others expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 58%, is higher than in the region, at 40%, or in their city or village, at 32%. Another approximately 30–45% allow for minor falsifications, while 21% believe that there will definitely be no falsifications in their settlement.
At the same time, 22% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 44% oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of cities are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Twelve percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 16% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the activity of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration slightly decreased, from 30% to 25%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads increased noticeably, from 45% to 58%. The level of satisfaction with the work of the regional administration and local heads among residents of the regional center is higher than among residents of small towns and villages.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption nationwide, cited by 43%, than in the region or at their place of residence, cited by 25–26%. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5% reported a decrease in corruption nationwide, 9% in the region, and 15% in their own city or village.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services, with the exception of school education, where a relative majority are satisfied. In year-on-year dynamics, most indicators show either negative trends or no change. The assessment of safety has slightly improved, while ecology and social protection have worsened. Respondents expressed the most negative views regarding the fight against bribery at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to relax and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. Younger, wealthier respondents and residents of Khmelnytskyi city rate nearly all opportunities higher.
About 9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, and 5–6% for the region and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess this potential at a medium level. About one third see low potential, and 9–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine or locally. Rural residents assess growth potential in the country and the region more positively, while residents of the regional center assess potential in their own settlement more positively.
The majority of respondents, at 75%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy-one percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and an even larger share, 81%, to be residents of their own city or village. Most often, respondents chose nature, at 52%, as the object of pride in their region. Thirty-four percent are proud of their region’s history, 26% of local traditions, and 24% each of culture and local residents.
Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, 30% of representatives of the older generation and 36% of low-income respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Vinnytsia, Ternopil, and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and Belarus.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among city residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 35% said they would like to engage in trade.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad remained at the same level, at 35–36%. At the same time, 49% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 43% are not. A higher level of migration intentions is observed among youth, at 58%, residents of small towns, at 42%, and individuals with middle income levels, at 40%.
Eighty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and 3% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
An absolute majority of respondents, at 78%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Fifteen percent hold the opposite view, and another 7% hesitated in their assessment.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly decreased, from 63% to 61%, as has support for NATO accession, from 54% to 52%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 59%. The number of those supporting Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased, from 20% to 29%. The number of supporters of accession to the Customs Union has decreased from 9% to 3%.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Rivne Region

14.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Rivne region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 30% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 40% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 33% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 40% and 50% of respondents consider the situation tense, and only about 10% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (17%) than that of the region (20%) or their city or village (27%). Residents of rural areas are particularly critical in assessing the direction of development of both the country and their locality. Among age groups, representatives of the middle generation are the most critical.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe that the situation will not change, while one in five has optimistic expectations for the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (64%) and bribery and corruption in government (41%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (45%), rising utility tariffs (40%), and the war in Donbas (36%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 22.5% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 16.4%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 15.1%, Oleh Liashko by 7.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.3%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 6.2%, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 6.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 5%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
More than one quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has nearly doubled. As last year, 16% are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko. About 8% believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will win. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 40% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Servant of the People party is supported by 16.8%, European Solidarity by 11.8%, the Radical Party by 7.9%, Civic Position by 7.8%, UKROP by 6.0%, and Svoboda by 4.4%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (87%), focus on solving the country’s problems (71%), and a socio-economic program (65%) are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 57%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 40% say that ensuring stability is more important. Fifty-six percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 36% consider the presence of a strong team more important. The choice between experience in state politics and belonging to the generation of “new” politicians divides respondents evenly. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
Thirty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Forty-two percent believe the situation will not change, and only 10% think it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (46%) is higher than at the local level (33%). About 40% allow for minor falsifications.
At the same time, 17% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Eighteen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Sixty-three percent oppose this form of campaigning. More favorable attitudes toward candidates distributing assistance are found in rural areas and among poorer respondents.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Eighteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share are satisfied with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are found in rural areas.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has somewhat decreased (from 28% to 22%), as has satisfaction with the work of city or village heads (from 42% to 38%). Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Over the year, most indicators show negative dynamics or no change. An exception is road conditions, the assessment of which improved over the year. The situation in school education is assessed relatively better. The worst evaluations concern the fight against bribery at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and for living safely the highest, and entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure, success, and finding a job are rated higher by residents of the regional center, opportunities for entrepreneurship by residents of small towns, and living safely by rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess it as medium. Only about one third see low potential, and 7–8% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both in Ukraine and locally. Residents of the regional center assess growth potential more critically.
The absolute majority of respondents (84%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (85%) and of their city or village (87%). Most often, respondents cited nature (49%) as a source of pride for their region. Thirty percent are proud of the history of their land, 20% of local traditions and residents, 18% of culture and art, 14% of natural resources, and 12% of sports achievements.
Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 20% think otherwise. Urban residents, younger, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in five rural residents and one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv and Volyn regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel closest to Belarus and Poland.
Almost 40% expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 36% would like to engage in trade, 12–13% in services and leisure as well as farming, and 10–11% in construction, tourism, and the beauty and wellness industry.
Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has slightly increased (from 36% to 41%). At the same time, 60% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%), residents of the regional center (46%), and wealthier respondents (45%).
Eighty-seven percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and 3% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
The absolute majority of respondents (86%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite opinion.
Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has increased (from 62% to 72%), as has support for NATO accession (from 48% to 59%). Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads (60%), 26% support equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Odesa Region

14.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Odesa region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 19% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 42% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-two percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 40% as critical. Half of respondents assess the situation in the region as tense, while another 21% consider it critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own city are better: 38% see it as tense and 14% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (9%) than that of the region (14%) or their city or village (23%). Residents of the regional center are less critical in their assessments of the direction of development of both the country and their locality.
General expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. About 40% believe that it will not change, while about one quarter have pessimistic expectations about the future. Between 22% and 23% were unable to answer this question.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (62%), lack of jobs and unemployment (40%), and bribery and corruption in government (40%) are the three main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (65%), low wages and pensions (56%), and rising prices for basic goods (55%). Problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas, while rising utility tariffs are felt more acutely in cities.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 19.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.5%, Yurii Boiko by 15.2%, Yevhenii Muraiiev by 8.6%, Vadym Rabinovych by 7.2%, Oleh Liashko by 6.6%, Petro Poroshenko by 5.4%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, approximately every fifth resident of the region does not wish to vote, and every seventh has not decided on a candidate.
Nineteen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Six percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (compared to 16% in 2017). About 6% believe that Yurii Boiko will win, and 5% believe in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Three quarters of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.3% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Opposition Bloc is supported by 18.7%, Servant of the People by 15.3%, the Nashy party by 8.6%, Za Zhyttia by 7.1%, the Radical Party by 6.5%, European Solidarity by 5.1%, and Civic Position by 4.3%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, one quarter of residents of the region do not wish to vote, and every seventh has not decided.
A candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country (61%) and their socio-economic program (62%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-three percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 39% consider the presence of a strong team more important. For 51%, a candidate’s experience in state politics is important, while 41% say that belonging to the generation of “new” politicians is more important. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Muraiiev. A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems is a motive for choice for 52% of respondents, while for 42% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving the problems of both the country and the region. For 38%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important, while for 31% cooperation with Russia is more important; one third have not decided on this issue.
Twenty-three percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while the same share hold the opposite view. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (63%) is higher than at the local level (54% in the region and 46% in the city or village). About 25% allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
At the same time, 22% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty percent take a neutral position on this issue. Forty-four percent oppose this form of campaigning. Older and poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Only 4–6% are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has almost not changed (from 24% to 26%). Fifty-three percent, as last year, stated that they are satisfied with the activity of the city or village head. Satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher among residents of cities and the regional center than among rural residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. About 40% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 3–5% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Over the year, no changes are observed for most indicators. Only assessments of agricultural development and road conditions have improved. The situation with school education, road conditions, and agriculture is assessed relatively better. The worst evaluations concern the fight against bribery at the local level and industrial development.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation the highest, and opportunities for entrepreneurship and living safely the lowest. Residents of the regional center, as well as younger and wealthier respondents, rate all opportunities higher.
About 6% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess it as medium. At the same time, about one third see low potential, and 15–17% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both in Ukraine and locally. Younger and middle-aged respondents assess growth potential more critically.
More than half of respondents (60%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 28% hold the opposite view. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (72%) and of their city or village (81%). Most often, respondents cited nature (46%), history (43%), and local residents (40%) as sources of pride for their region. Thirty percent are proud of regional culture and art, 27% of traditions, 25% of landmarks, 22% of cuisine and culinary traditions, 13% of natural resources, and 11% of prominent people.
Two thirds consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one quarter hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy, and among the poor this share reaches 43%.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Mykolaiv region. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often chose Belarus and Russia, as well as Moldova, as being close.
Almost 26% expressed a desire to start their own business. Ten percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while half stated that they do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one third reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, and 7–9% in public catering, tourism, construction and repairs, car service, transport services, the beauty and wellness industry, entertainment, and leisure.
Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has almost not changed (from 28% to 30%). At the same time, 53% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (46%), residents of the regional center (33%), and wealthier respondents (43%).
Forty-one percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, 29% support granting it official status in certain regions, and 26% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
Forty-seven percent of respondents do not consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 28% hold the opposite view. One quarter were unable to answer this question.
The number of opponents of the pro-Western vector exceeds the number of supporters. At the same time, over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU has slightly increased (from 24% to 29%), as has support for NATO accession (from 15% to 18%). The number of supporters of accession to the Customs Union has decreased (from 27% to 18%). At the same time, the share of those who support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West has increased (from 39% to 45%).

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zhytomyr Region

14.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Zhytomyr region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 24% consider the situation in their home region to be calm, and 41% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Nearly 55% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 34% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 38% and 51% see the situation as tense, and about 14–17% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (16%) than that of the region (24%) or their city or village (29%). Residents of Zhytomyr city and small towns assess the direction of local development more critically. With regard to the direction of Ukraine’s movement, residents of the regional center are more pessimistic. Among age groups, representatives of the younger generation are the most critical.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. One in five believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. Half of respondents believe that the situation will not change. Nevertheless, about 20% have negative expectations.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (61%) is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (48%), rising utility tariffs (45%), and rising prices for basic goods and inflation (35%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas, while lack of opportunities for entrepreneurship and education, as well as rising crime, are more characteristic concerns in small towns.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 22.1% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 14.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 12.0%, Oleh Liashko by 11.9%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 5.7%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 5.5%, Yurii Boiko by 3.5%, and Yevhenii Murayev by 3.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, nearly one in five residents of the region has not decided on a candidate.
One in five believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Eleven percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (15% in 2017). Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning, and about 4% expect Oleh Liashko to win. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Nearly 38% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 16.3%, European Solidarity by 12.4%, the Radical Party by 10.6%, Civic Position by 5.3%, and the Opposition Bloc by 4.3%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, nearly one quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a party.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (62%) is the motive that has a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Other motives split respondents roughly in half. For 50%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 42% stated that ensuring stability is more important to them. Forty percent said that experience in state politics is more important, while for half of respondents the candidate’s belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is important. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Yevhenii Murayev. Forty-nine percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while for 43% the presence of a strong team is more important. Forty-seven percent choose based on the socio-economic program, and 43% based on ideological views. Respondents equally assess the importance of a candidate’s orientation toward solving problems of the country or of the region.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while 33% believe that it will improve. Fifteen percent state that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Yevhenii Murayev more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the nationwide level (36%) is higher than at the local level (25%). About 40% also allow the possibility of minor falsifications at all levels. At the same time, one quarter of respondents are convinced that there will be no fraud in their city or village.
At the same time, 15% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 51% oppose this type of campaigning. Poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thirteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 7% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are observed in the regional center.
Twenty-five percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of the regional state administration (28% in 2017). Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the city or village head did not change (42%). Local leaders are rated more favorably in the regional center and in villages.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Between 10% and 14% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In year-to-year dynamics, most indicators show no change. The situation in school education is rated relatively better. Assessments of road conditions and life safety improved significantly over the year. Respondents expressed the most negative views about the state of the environment.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of finding a job relatively higher, and the possibility of engaging in entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure and recreation and achieving success are rated higher by residents of the regional center, entrepreneurship by residents of small towns, and living safely by residents of villages. In general, urban residents rate job-search opportunities higher than rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess this potential as medium. One third see low potential, and 10–13% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of small towns assess growth potential more critically.
The majority of respondents (72%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. The same share feel proud to be residents of their region, and 75% of their city or village. The older the respondents, the higher the level of pride. The most common source of regional pride is nature (56%). Forty percent are proud of their region’s history, 26% of culture and art, 24% of local residents, 18% of natural resources, 11% of notable people and landmarks, and 10% of traditions.
Sixty-nine percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while nearly 27% hold the opposite view. Residents of cities, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, one third of older respondents and nearly half of poorer respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus and Poland, as well as Russia.
Nearly one third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Half do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one in five stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 12% in construction and repair, 10% in farming, 10% in entertainment and leisure, and 9% in the beauty and health industry.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 22% to 32%. At the same time, 60% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (47%), residents of the regional center (38%), and respondents with average income levels (36%).
Seventy-four percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Fourteen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, and 9% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
More than half of respondents (64%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Twenty percent hold the opposite view, and 16% are undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased slightly from 61% to 57%, as did support for NATO accession (from 48% to 44%). At the same time, the number of opponents did not increase. Among directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads with 51%, 34% support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Cherkasy Region

13.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Cherkasy region from November 16 to December 7, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 18% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 49% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-seven percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 34% as critical. In the region, 61% see the situation as tense, while in their city 36% do so; only 5% consider the local situation to be critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (13%) and the region’s direction (15%) worse than that of their city or village (29%). Residents of rural settlements and the oldest respondents are more optimistic in their assessments of the situation in their locality.
Despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 19% believe that the situation in Ukraine will improve next year, 13% hold this view regarding the region, and 16% regarding their settlement. The overwhelming majority believe that the situation will not change. Between 11% and 15% think it will worsen. Younger respondents and residents of smaller settlements are more optimistic in their assessments.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (87%) and corruption in government (64%) are the two largest nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (64%), low income (61%), and inflation (55%). At the level of personal problems, socio-economic issues such as unemployment, inflation, high tariffs, and low income are felt more acutely in rural areas, while problems of corruption and social protection concern residents of the regional center somewhat more.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 20.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 12.6%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 12.1%, Petro Poroshenko by 9.4%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 5.9%, Ruslan Koshulynskyi by 5.8%, Oleh Liashko by 5.6%, Yurii Boiko by 4.2%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 4.1%, and Andrii Sadovyi by 2.7%. Other candidates have ratings below 2.5%. One in ten residents of the region has not decided on a candidate.
Twenty-one point three percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Nine percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (14% in 2017). About 6% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning, 4.5% Anatolii Hrytsenko, 3% Ruslan Koshulynskyi and Yurii Boiko each, and 2% Oleh Liashko. Fewer than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, Petro Poroshenko, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. More than 60% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.0% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 14.1%, Civic Position by 12.9%, European Solidarity by 8.8%, Svoboda by 6.0%, the Radical Party by 5.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 4.7%, and UKROP by 4.2%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, 11% of respondents have not decided on a party.
Orientation of a candidate toward solving the country’s problems (68%), personal leadership qualities (67%), socio-economic program (60%), and orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union (59%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, 30% also tend to focus on a politician’s ideological views rather than their program, 28% focus on the candidate’s strong team, and for 22% attention to their region is important. For 56%, experience in politics is important, while 40% state that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” matters more to them, which is especially relevant for younger voters and supporters of Ruslan Koshulynskyi, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 54% choose radical change, particularly supporters of Koshulynskyi, while 36% prefer stability.
Thirty-five percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while the same share believe that it will not change. Only 8% believe it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote expect significantly fewer positive changes.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the nationwide level (61%) is higher than at the regional level (42%) or in their city or village (28%). About one third also allow the possibility of minor falsifications. Twenty-one percent believe that there will be no fraud in their locality.
At the same time, 17% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-three percent take a neutral position, while 54% oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of villages and the poorest respondents are more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Eleven percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 13% with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 7% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration declined from 23% to 17%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads remained almost unchanged at 46–47%. Satisfaction with local leaders is significantly higher among rural residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption in Ukraine as a whole (52%) than in the region (35%) or their place of residence (21%). Thirty-seven percent believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at the central level, while 43–49% hold this view regarding their locality. Only 1–4% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. The situation in school education, life safety, and agricultural development is rated relatively better. In agriculture, approval dynamics over the year are the most positive. At the same time, assessments of school education, ecology, social protection, and the fight against corruption have declined, with the latter rated the worst.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of leisure and recreation the highest, and the ability to achieve success the lowest. Most opportunity areas, except leisure, are rated higher by wealthier respondents. Young people and rural residents rate leisure and safety higher, while younger respondents also rate opportunities for achieving success higher. Residents of the regional center rate job opportunities higher.
Only 2–3% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Between 20% and 30% assess this potential as medium. About 40–45% see low potential. Twelve to fourteen percent see no prospects for economic growth in Ukraine and the region at all, while 24% see none in their city or village. Residents of small towns assess growth potential for the country and region somewhat better.
Between 73% and 74% feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, residents of the region, and residents of their city or village. Older respondents feel pride slightly more often. The most common sources of regional pride are nature (48%) and history (44%). Culture and traditions are cited by 31% each, notable people of the region by 28%, landmarks and local residents by 18–19%, cuisine and culinary traditions by 13%, and sports achievements and natural resources by 10–11%.
About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 17% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in five among the older generation and one in three among the poorest respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kyiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus, somewhat less to Poland, and partially to Russia.
Twenty-seven percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 47% do not have such a desire and 18% are undecided. Eight percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of smaller towns and villages, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 28% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad decreased from 39% to 34%. Forty percent of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 30% are not. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (62%).
An absolute majority of respondents (85%) believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, and 4% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
Eighty-one percent consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite view, and 10% were unable to answer.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly decreased from 64% to 61%. Support for NATO accession has remained almost unchanged at 47–48%, while the number of opponents decreased from 24% to 20%. Among directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads with 50% (59% in 2017). Only 2% support accession to the Customs Union. Over time, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West increased from 20% to 33%.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Dnipropetrovsk Region

13.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Dnipropetrovsk region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 30% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 40% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 40% as critical. At the local level, assessments are better: between 35% and 42% see the situation as tense, and about 20% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (12%) worse than that of the region (21%) or their city or village (26%). Residents of the regional center assess local affairs better than the overall situation in the country, while a more critical attitude toward local affairs is expressed by residents of other cities in the region.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only 16–18% believe that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. Half believe it will not change, while between 16% and 19% have optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (70%) is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (51%), low wages and pensions (48%), and the war in Donbas (41%). Problems such as bribery and corruption in government, low wages and pensions, and rising utility tariffs are felt more acutely in rural areas.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 21.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.0%, Yurii Boiko by 14.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.8%, Yevhenii Murayev by 6.0%, Oleh Liashko by 5.2%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.7%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, more than a quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a candidate.
One in five respondents believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has tripled. As last year, 9% are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko. About 7% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning, and 5% Yurii Boiko. No more than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 60% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 15.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 14.6%, the “For Life” party by 6.4%, European Solidarity by 5.5%, UKROP and the Radical Party by 5.3% each, the “Nashi” party by 4.4%, and Civic Position by 3.6%. Other parties have ratings below 2%. At the same time, almost one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party.
A socio-economic program (69%) and orientation toward solving the country’s problems (63%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 58%, the candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country is important, while 36% stated that ensuring radical change is more important to them. Orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important for 54%, while for 24% orientation toward cooperation with Russia is more important. Forty-nine percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 48%, experience in public office is more important, while for 42% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” matters more. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Murayev.
Thirty-four percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-five percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 13% believe it will worsen. Supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Those who do not intend to vote more often expect deterioration.
Two thirds of respondents expect significant election fraud in the presidential elections at both the national and local levels. One in four believes that falsifications will be minor, and fewer than 10% believe the elections will be fair.
At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty percent take a neutral position, while 64% oppose this type of campaigning. A more favorable attitude toward the distribution of assistance by candidates is observed in the regional center and among the youngest respondents.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thirteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 12% with President Petro Poroshenko, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of the President and the Prime Minister, and almost 90% with Parliament. More critical assessments are observed in cities of the region.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration and city or village heads has practically not changed. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of Dnipro and villages than in other cities of the region. Activity of the regional state administration is rated more positively in the regional center.
Almost half of respondents believe that the level of corruption has increased both at the national and local levels. Thirty percent believe that the situation with bribery has not changed. Only 4–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In annual dynamics, most indicators show negative trends or no change. The situation in school education and the condition of roads is assessed relatively better. Respondents speak most negatively about the fight against bribery at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of finding a job and leisure and recreation the highest, and engaging in entrepreneurship the lowest. Residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher.
One in ten sees high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one third assess this potential as medium. Almost the same share see low potential, while 11–13% see no opportunities for economic growth at any level. Younger and middle-aged respondents assess economic potential somewhat better, while rural residents are more critical regarding the potential of their own locality.
Sixty-seven percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (72%) and of their city or village (74%). Pride increases with age. The most common sources of regional pride are nature (35%) and local history (31%). Twenty-one percent are proud of industry, 18% of local residents, 16% of natural resources, 14% of culture and sports achievements, 13% of landmarks, and 12% of regional traditions.
More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while a quarter of respondents hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Zaporizhzhia region. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Russia, and Poland.
Thirty-five percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Nine percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Almost half stated that they do not want to run their own business. A higher desire to become an entrepreneur is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 35% would like to engage in trade, 10% in farming, 9% in construction and repair, and 8% in entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased slightly from 31% to 35%. Fifty-four percent of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%), residents of cities in the region (about one third), and wealthier and middle-income respondents (about 40%).
Fifty-two percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Thirty-six percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, and another 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
Half of respondents (52%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 34% hold the opposite view.
Over the past year, the share of those opposing Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased from 25% to 32%, and to NATO from 37% to 43%. At the same time, the number of supporters of the pro-Western vector has remained almost unchanged (46% for EU accession and 32% for NATO). The share of those supporting Ukraine’s equidistance from the EU and Russia has also increased from 30% to 34%.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kirovohrad Region

13.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kirovohrad region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 19% consider the situation in the region to be calm, and 37% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 58% view the situation in the country as tense, and 33% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 45% and 55% see the situation as tense, and between 14% and 17% as critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the direction of movement of the country (15%) and the region (18%) worse than that of their city or village (27%). Residents of the regional center are more optimistic in these assessments, while people of middle age are more critical.
Despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. One in three to one in four believe that the situation in Ukraine and locally will improve next year. The overwhelming majority (40–50%) think that the situation will not change. Between 11% and 15% believe that it will worsen.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (79%) is the most significant nationwide problem according to residents of the region. Unemployment is also considered a major problem (47%). At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low income and rising utility tariffs, both cited by 51%. Unemployment, inflation, and low income are felt more acutely in rural areas, while tariffs, healthcare, and social protection are of greater concern to residents of the regional center.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 24.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 13.4%, Petro Poroshenko by 12.9%, Oleh Liashko by 10.0%, Yurii Boiko by 9.6%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.9%, and Vadym Rabinovych and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 4.1% each. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased more than threefold. Eleven percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (the same as in 2017). About 6% consider the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi likely, 5% that of Yurii Boiko, and 4% that of Oleh Liashko. Fewer than 2% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Vadym Rabinovych.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 60% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. Servant of the People is supported by 15.6%, European Solidarity by 11.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 10.3%, the Radical Party by 8.8%, Za Zhyttia by 4.8%, and Civic Position by 4.7%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, 18% have not decided on their choice.
A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems (63%), socio-economic program (59%), and orientation toward closer cooperation with the EU (56%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, 30% are inclined to focus on a politician’s ideological views rather than their program, 23% consider attention to their region important, and 22% view cooperation with Russia as more appropriate, especially voters of Yurii Boiko. For 52%, personal leadership qualities of the candidate are important, while 38% consider the presence of a strong team more important. Another 48% choose a candidate primarily because of political experience, while for 42% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is important, particularly among younger respondents and voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Oleksandr Shevchenko. When choosing between radical changes and ensuring stability, 49% prefer radical changes, while 42% lean more toward stability.
Forty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 9% say that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often expect positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (43%) is higher than at the local level (20–26%). About half of respondents allow the possibility of minor falsifications. Twenty-one percent believe that there will be no fraud in their locality.
Twenty-one percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-three percent take a neutral position, while 42% oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of the regional center and rural areas, as well as respondents with middle and lower income levels, are more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Nine percent are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more (11%) with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 3% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. Residents of the regional center assess it somewhat better.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration decreased significantly (from 39% to 19%), as did satisfaction with the work of the city or village head (from 51% to 36%). Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption in Ukraine as a whole (34%) than in the region (22%) or their place of residence (17%). Between 50% and 55% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–6% reported a decrease in corruption in the region and the country, while 15% reported a decrease in their locality.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Agricultural development, school education, and road conditions received relatively better evaluations. In year-to-year dynamics, most indicators show negative trends, with the exception of agriculture. Evaluations of school education, ecology, social protection, youth support, and the fight against corruption have deteriorated significantly, with the latter rated the worst.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and achieving success the highest, and finding a job the lowest. All opportunities are rated higher by residents of the regional center. Leisure, success, and employment opportunities are rated better by wealthier respondents.
About 21% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, while 10% see such potential for the region and for their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Between 35% and 45% assess the potential as medium. About one third see low potential, and 8–12% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of the regional center assess the growth potential of their city somewhat more positively.
Sixty-nine percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 21% do not. Seventy percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and the highest share feel proud of their city or village (77%), while 17% hold the opposite view. Older respondents feel pride somewhat more often. The most common sources of regional pride are history (37%) and nature (36%). Twenty-three percent are proud of local culture, 20% of traditions, 18% of local residents, about 15% of agriculture, prominent people, and sports achievements, 12% of natural resources, and 11% of landmarks and cuisine.
About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 23% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, almost one third of representatives of the older generation and the poorest groups consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Cherkasy, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Poland, and Russia.
Thirty-four percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 37% do not have such a desire and 23% are undecided. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 34% reported that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 47% would like to engage in trade.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 26% to 38%. At the same time, 65% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (53%).
Seventy percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Thirteen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, and 11% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
About half of respondents (52%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 30% hold the opposite view and 18% were unable to answer.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains at the same level (45–46%). NATO accession is supported by 37%, the same as last year. At the same time, the number of opponents of alliance with NATO has slightly decreased (from 32% to 29%). Among directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector is supported by 42%, and the Customs Union by 9%. Over time, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West has decreased (from 34% to 26%).
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Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kharkiv Region

12.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kharkiv region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 33% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 45% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-four percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 37% as critical. Half of respondents assess the situation in the region as tense, and another 13% as critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own cities are better: 36% see it as tense and 15% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (14%) worse than that of the region (34%) or their city or village (40%). The direction of the country’s development is assessed most negatively in Kharkiv city and in rural areas, while the local situation is evaluated most critically by residents of small towns.
General expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine will improve next year. Expectations regarding the local situation are somewhat more optimistic: 14% expect improvement in the region and 17% in their city or village. At the same time, about half believe that the situation will not change at any level, while about one quarter have pessimistic expectations regarding the future of Ukraine, and one quarter regarding the region or their place of residence.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (66%) is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (55%), low wages and pensions (50%), and rising prices for basic goods (44%). Most problems are felt more acutely in small towns and rural areas than in the regional center.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yurii Boiko, whom 19.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Yuliia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi are each supported by 15.5%, Yevhenii Murayev by 11.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 9.0%, Vadym Rabinovych by 6.5%, and Oleh Liashko by 4.5%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate, and every seventh does not intend to vote.
At the same time, 19.5% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased fivefold. Fourteen point one percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (compared to 7% in 2017). About 4.8% see Yurii Boiko winning, and 4.3% Volodymyr Zelenskyi. No more than 3% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 61% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, the Opposition Bloc leads with the support of 16.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Batkivshchyna is supported by 14.3%, Servant of the People by 12.6%, the “Nashi” party by 10.9%, European Solidarity by 9.0%, For Life by 8.7%, Revival by 8.3%, and the Radical Party by 4.0%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, one quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a party choice, and one in six does not intend to vote.
The candidate’s socio-economic program and personal leadership qualities (59% each) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, the presence of a strong team is important for 32% of respondents, and ideological views for 31%. Fifty-two percent expect a politician to be able to ensure stability in the country, while for 38% the desire to implement change is more important. Fifty-one percent choose a candidate primarily because of their orientation toward solving the country’s problems, while for 40% orientation toward solving both national and regional problems is important. For 47%, experience in public office matters, while 40% stated that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Murayev. For 44%, orientation toward cooperation with the European Union is important, while for 30% cooperation with Russia is more important, and one quarter have not decided on this issue.
Thirty-three percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while 22% expect deterioration. On the other hand, 29% expect improvement. The largest share of those expecting improvement are among supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who have not decided or do not intend to vote. Half of those who do not intend to vote have negative expectations.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud in the presidential elections is higher at the national level (53%) than at the local level (48% in the region and 43% in the city or village). About one third also allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
At the same time, 25% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Another 26% take a neutral position, while 46% oppose this type of campaigning. Vote-buying is more strongly condemned by residents of small towns and respondents of the middle age group.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Only 14% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 9% with President Petro Poroshenko, and 8% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration and local heads increased: satisfaction with the regional administration rose from 29% to 40%, and with local leaders from 52% to 56%. Satisfaction with the regional administration and the mayor is highest among residents of Kharkiv city.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in the level of corruption nationwide (45%) than in the region (34%) or at their place of residence (30%). About half of respondents believe that the level of bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were given to the condition of roads, the environment, school education, and personal safety. The worst assessments concern the fight against bribery at the local level. In annual dynamics, improvements in assessments are observed for most indicators, especially regarding road conditions and personal safety.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of leisure and recreation highest, and engaging in entrepreneurship lowest. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship were rated higher in the regional center, while personal safety was rated higher in small towns and villages. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher.
Respondents assess the economic development potential at the local level somewhat better than that of Ukraine as a whole. Only 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine over the next 5–10 years. One quarter assess it as medium, while almost 40% see low potential and 17% see no opportunities for economic growth at all. In contrast, one in ten sees significant development potential locally, one third assess it as medium, one third as low, and one in ten see no potential. Residents of Kharkiv city assess the development potential of their city most positively.
Half of respondents (52%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 41% hold the opposite view. Significantly more feel proud to be residents of their region (76%) and of their city or village (82%). The most common sources of regional pride are nature (38%). Culture and art and history are each cited by 30%, landmarks by 29%, local residents by 28%, natural resources, science, and education by 23% each, regional traditions by 20%, sports achievements by 15%, prominent individuals by 13%, and industry by 12%.
Almost 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one quarter hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy, and among the poor this share reaches 44%.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Poltava region. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider Belarus and Russia to be closest.
Thirty percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Eight percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while 56% stated that they do not have such a desire. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% would like to engage in trade, 15% in tourism, 14% in the beauty and health industry, 11% in entertainment and leisure or transport services, 10% in the IT sector, and 9% in farming or construction and repair.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 24% to 35%. Fifty-seven percent of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 34% are not. Higher migration intentions are traditionally observed among young people (54%), city residents (35–37%), and respondents with middle and high incomes (44–45%).
Thirty-seven percent support granting the Russian language state status, 31% support granting it official status in certain regions, while 28% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
Forty-eight percent of respondents do not consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 35% hold the opposite view and 17% were unable to answer.
The number of supporters of the pro-Western vector is smaller than the number of opponents, although the share of opponents decreased over the year. Thus, 35% support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (33% in 2017), while 44% do not support it (49% in 2017). Twenty-four percent support accession to NATO (22% in 2017), while 56% do not support it (60% in 2017). Among different vectors of foreign economic integration, equidistance from Russia and the West continues to lead (36%). Twenty percent support accession to the Customs Union.
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Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Poltava Region

12.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Poltava region from November 16 to December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 40% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 54% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 69% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 21% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: between 33% and 44% see the situation as tense, and only 7–10% consider it critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country and the region somewhat worse, at 14% and 15% respectively, than that of their city or village, which stands at 22%. The correctness of developments in one’s own city or village is rated higher by residents of small towns and villages than by residents of the regional center.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. More than half of respondents believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will not change next year. About one quarter believe it will worsen. Only one in ten has optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine, cited by 63%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 48%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, mentioned by 64%, low wages and pensions, mentioned by 54%, and rising prices for basic goods and inflation, mentioned by 44%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions and inflation at the personal level are felt more acutely in the regional center and small towns.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 25.3% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 18.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 10.6%, Oleh Liashko by 8.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.9%, and Yurii Boiko by 6.7%. Other candidates have ratings below 5%. At the same time, one in five residents of the region has not decided on a candidate, and the same share does not intend to vote.
Yuliia Tymoshenko is the candidate whose victory respondents believe in most. Over the past year, the share of those convinced of her victory increased from 18% to 29%. Fifteen percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko, compared to 23% in 2007. About 5% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Fifty-two percent of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 28.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 16.1%, European Solidarity by 9.8%, Civic Position by 8.2%, the Radical Party by 7.9%, and the Opposition Bloc by 6.0%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost one quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a party choice, and one in five does not intend to vote.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, is a motive that has a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-eight percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while for 33% the presence of a strong team is more important. Sixty percent consider experience in public office important, while 34% say belonging to a generation of “new” politicians is more important, a motive that is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Fifty-seven percent prioritize the socio-economic program, while 34% focus on ideological views. Orientation toward solving national problems is a motive for 54% of respondents, while for 39% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems. The choice between a candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country or to implement radical changes divided respondents almost evenly.
Forty-six percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Another 24% believe the situation will improve, while 21% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice are relatively less likely to expect positive changes.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud in the presidential elections is higher at the national level, at 53%, than at the regional level, at 35%, or the local level, at 24%. Another 40–50% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
Eleven percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 66% oppose this type of campaigning. A more favorable attitude toward the distribution of assistance by candidates is observed in the regional center.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Ten percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 12% with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration decreased somewhat, from 28% to 15%, as did satisfaction with city and village heads, from 43% to 38%. The share of those dissatisfied with the activity of the regional state administration increased slightly, from 64% to 67%, while dissatisfaction with city and village heads remained almost unchanged. Satisfaction with local leaders is significantly higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5–9% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In annual dynamics, all indicators show negative trends. Respondents speak most positively about the situation in agriculture and school education, although assessments of the latter have deteriorated significantly over the year. Significant declines were also observed in indices related to ecology, personal safety, the fight against corruption, social protection, and healthcare, with the last two rated worst by respondents.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for recreation and leisure and the ability to live safely highest. The lowest ratings were given to opportunities for entrepreneurship. In cities, opportunities for recreation, job search, and safe living are rated higher. At the same time, residents of Poltava city assess opportunities for achieving success and engaging in entrepreneurship in their city very pessimistically. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 5% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Almost one third assess the potential as medium. More than 40% see low potential, and 13–17% see no opportunities for economic growth at either the national or local level. Younger respondents rate growth potential at all levels more highly.
More than half of respondents, at 59%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 35% hold the opposite view. Respondents feel somewhat more pride in being residents of their region, at 70%, and of their city or village, at 74%. The most frequent sources of pride in the region are nature, cited by 38%, and history, cited by 37%. Twenty-six percent are proud of culture and art, 24% of traditions, 22% of local residents, 17% of natural resources, 14% each of landmarks and cuisine and culinary traditions, 12% of notable regional figures, and 10% of agriculture.
Almost 69% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 27% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, 36% of older respondents and 49% of those in the poorest category consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kharkiv region. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Russia, Belarus, and partly to Poland.
Almost 28% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 64% hold the opposite view. Three percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 12% stated that they are already engaged in business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 11% in the catering sector and farming, 10% in construction, and 9% each in entertainment and leisure, tourism, and the beauty and health industry.
Twenty-seven percent of respondents expressed a desire to work abroad, while 68% hold the opposite view. Forty-eight percent are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 34% did not express such intentions. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people, at 50%, residents of the regional center, at 37%, and wealthier respondents, at 46%.
Eighty percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nine percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 8% support granting it state language status.
More than half of respondents, at 69%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 21% hold the opposite view. One in ten was undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, at 52%, and NATO, at 41%, has remained almost unchanged. Among different vectors of foreign economic integration, the pro-European direction leads at 50%, 31% support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 7% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Chernihiv Region

12.12.2018

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Chernihiv region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 8% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 37% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 55% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 69% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 16% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: between 30% and 40% see the situation as tense, and only about 3% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (12%) worse than that of the region (16%) or their city or village (31%). Evaluations of the direction of development of both the country and the region are especially critical among residents of small towns and villages. At the same time, in their own localities rural residents assess the situation somewhat better than those living in small towns.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 15–20% believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe that it will not change, and one in ten has optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (80%) and bribery and corruption in government (49%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (66%), rising utility tariffs (52%), and rising prices for basic goods and inflation (46%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, inflation, and insufficient social protection are felt more acutely in small towns and villages.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 26.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Oleh Liashko is supported by 17.9%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 12.8%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.7%, and Yurii Boiko by 7.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. Almost one in five residents of the region has not yet decided on a candidate.
Every fifth respondent believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by one and a half times. Eleven percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (13% last year). About 9% see Oleh Liashko winning. No more than 5% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleh Liashko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 66% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 26.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The Radical Party is supported by 19.1%, Servant of the People by 10.5%, Civic Position by 8.1%, European Solidarity by 6.9%, the Opposition Bloc by 6.4%, the Agrarian Party by 3.9%, and UKROP by 3.1%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party choice.
The candidate’s socio-economic program (70%), orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union (68%), experience in public office (66%), and leadership qualities (64%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 55%, it is important that the candidate focuses primarily on solving national problems, while 37% stated that the ability to solve both national and local problems is more important. The choice between a politician’s ability to ensure radical change (43%) or, conversely, to stabilize the situation (51%) divided respondents almost evenly. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, and Anatolii Hrytsenko.
Thirty-four percent of respondents do not expect any changes in the country after the upcoming elections. At the same time, 29% believe that the situation will improve, and only 14% say it will worsen. Twenty-three percent were unable to answer this question. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko more often expect positive changes. Those expecting deterioration are more common among respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
Almost half of respondents (48%) allow for the possibility of significant falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level. At the local level, expectations of violations are significantly lower: 28% allow for significant falsifications at the regional level, and 22% at the level of the city or village.
At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-eight percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 45% oppose this type of campaigning. A more favorable attitude toward the distribution of assistance by candidates is observed in Chernihiv city and among older and poorer respondents.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Ten percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 12% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are observed in rural areas.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration decreased somewhat, from 41% to 30%, as did satisfaction with city and village heads, from 62% to 50%. Local leaders are rated very positively in Chernihiv city and in villages. In small towns, dissatisfaction with local leaders outweighs satisfaction.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. Almost two thirds of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In annual dynamics, most indicators show either negative trends or no change. Exceptions include personal safety and the fight against crime, where assessments have improved over the year. Relatively better evaluations are given to school education, safety, and road conditions. The worst assessments concern healthcare, social protection, and industrial development.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for recreation and leisure and the ability to live safely highest. The lowest ratings were given to opportunities to find a job. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center, while the ability to live safely is rated higher in villages. Wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than poorer ones.
Only about 2% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess the potential as medium. Half see low potential, and 5% see no opportunities for economic growth at either the national or local level. Residents of the regional center assess development potential at all levels more optimistically.
An absolute majority of respondents (73%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 14% hold the opposite view. Respondents feel somewhat more pride in being residents of their city or village (78%). The most frequent sources of pride in the region are nature (55%) and history (45%). Thirty percent are proud of local residents, 27% of regional traditions, 22% of culture and art, 20% each of landmarks and agriculture, 16% of natural resources, and 10% of notable local figures.
Almost 60% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, one in five village residents and one in four representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy. Among the poor, as many as 40% feel unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kyiv, Poltava, and Sumy regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel the greatest closeness to Belarus, and somewhat less to Russia and Poland.
Twenty-nine percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Four percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while half of respondents do not intend to engage in business. A higher desire to start a business is observed among urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one in five stated that they are already engaged in entrepreneurship. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 11% each in construction and repair or car service, and 10% each in transport and logistics, catering, and entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 22% to 33%. Only one third of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (66%), urban residents (36%), and respondents with middle income levels (43%).
Eighty percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twelve percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 3% support granting it state language status.
An absolute majority of respondents (73%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 12% hold the opposite view, and 15% were undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased somewhat, from 44% to 47%. Support for NATO membership remained almost unchanged at 38%. Among different vectors of foreign economic integration, the pro-European direction leads at 45%. Thirty-seven percent support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.

Press

Assessment of threats and attitude to the introduction of martial law in Ukraine

11.12.2018

According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, the majority of respondents (62%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country with respect to Ukraine. Twenty-six percent of respondents hold the opposite view, while another one in ten have not decided.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents believe that Russia committed an act of military aggression against Ukraine during the incident involving Ukrainian and Russian military vessels in the Sea of Azov, which took place on November 25, 2018. Twenty-two percent hold the opposite opinion, while another one fifth were undecided.
At the same time, only one third of respondents support the decision to impose martial law for 30 days in certain regions, while almost 60% do not support it.
The decision to impose martial law is supported by only half of those who consider Russia an aggressor. The decision is relatively more supported by residents of Western Ukraine (44%) and Central Ukraine (39%), less so in the South (24%), and least of all in the East (14%). It is more often supported by respondents who speak Ukrainian at home (45%) than by those who speak Russian (17%), and is somewhat more supported by men (38%) than by women (28%).
At the same time, only 14% support the decision to impose martial law for 60 days and across the entire territory of Ukraine, while 76% do not support it.
Meanwhile, the majority of respondents (69%) consider the introduction of martial law to be a delayed decision and are convinced that it should have been introduced back in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of hostilities in Donbas.
Almost two thirds of respondents allow for the possibility that President Petro Poroshenko intended to impose martial law in Ukraine for 60 days in order to postpone the presidential elections.
At the same time, most respondents believe that the introduction of martial law will draw the attention of the international community to the Ukrainian–Russian conflict (60%) and will contribute to the introduction of additional international sanctions against Russia (55%).
However, only 31% of respondents believe that the introduction of martial law will help improve the country’s defense capability.
Overall, 22% assess the likelihood of a full-scale ground military invasion of Ukraine by Russia as high, 29% as medium, and 17% as low. One fifth believe that there is no threat at all, while one tenth were undecided. A higher level of invasion threat is perceived by respondents in the western and central parts of the country, and a lower level in the south and east.

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