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State of the healthcare sector in Rivne Region: December 2018
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All
2018
20.12.2018
  • According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group at least two thirds of respondents (64%) are dissatisfied with state medical services over the past five years. At the same time, 23% report being satisfied with state healthcare services. Over the past year, no significant changes have occurred in the assessments of public healthcare. Overall, the level of satisfaction with public medical services is somewhat higher among those who visit doctors more frequently.
  • Only 15% of respondents believe that over the past two years the overall quality of state medical services in the region has improved, while 14% noted an improvement in the quality of medical services they personally received. Compared to the previous year, the share of respondents who did not observe any changes at all increased (from 41% to 47%). At the same time, on a personal level, respondents more often reported a deterioration in assessments of state medical services (from 26% to 32%). Urban residents are more inclined to notice positive changes compared to rural residents. The frequency of visits to doctors also affects evaluations of services: the more often respondents seek medical care, the better they assess the work of healthcare professionals.
  • Over the year, there has been a slight decrease in the share of respondents who positively assess the work of state medical institutions. Currently, 38% of respondents assess the quality of services positively, while 46% assess it negatively. Rural residents, those who visit doctors more frequently, and respondents with children under the age of 18 give higher evaluations of the work of these institutions.
  • At the same time, nearly half of respondents were unable to assess the quality of medical care in private healthcare facilities at all. Forty percent assess it positively, while 13% assess it negatively. Younger respondents, more affluent individuals, urban residents, and those who visit doctors more frequently are more inclined to evaluate private healthcare positively.
  • Forty-six percent of respondents stated that they had witnessed reconstruction or renovation of hospitals over the past two years, while 32% reported the opposite. Compared to the previous year, the share of those who noticed positive changes increased from 35% to 46%. Urban residents and those who visited doctors more frequently were significantly more likely to mention renovations of hospital premises.
  • Over the past year, one quarter of respondents reported changes in the quality of medical services received, while 45% stated that the quality had not changed. When assessing various quality criteria of medical services, 44% reported improvements in the conditions under which medical care is provided, 38% said conditions had not changed, and 12% indicated deterioration. Attitudes toward patients, professionalism and competence of doctors, and effectiveness of treatment improved in the opinion of 34–39% of respondents, while 43–44% believe these criteria have not changed and 15–17% reported deterioration.
  • Half of respondents noticed changes in the cost of medical services, while 21% believe costs have not changed. According to the evaluation of specific criteria, more than 70% believe that the cost of medical services involving specialized equipment and consultations has worsened. Almost 90% reported a deterioration in prices for medications prescribed by doctors.
  • For 11% of respondents, territorial and time accessibility to medical institutions has changed, while 65% did not notice such changes. Urban residents and those who visit doctors more frequently were more likely to report changes. More than half of respondents noticed improvements in the ability to choose a doctor, while 27% indicated no changes and 13% noted deterioration. Nearly 40% positively assessed changes in the territorial convenience of medical facilities, one third noticed no changes, and one quarter believe accessibility has worsened. At the same time, more than 40% did not notice changes in the possibility of scheduling appointments in advance, waiting times, or doctors’ working schedules. Nearly one third positively assessed these changes, while 14–18% assessed them negatively.
  • Only 6% of respondents are well informed about the changes proposed by the healthcare reform. Forty-two percent stated that they had heard something about it, 29% know very little, and 21% know nothing about the essence of the reform. Awareness is higher among urban residents and individuals with higher education.
  • Thirty-five percent of respondents stated that they support the implementation of healthcare reform in Ukraine, while 43% expressed the opposite opinion. Twenty-two percent were unable to provide any assessment. Support for the reform is higher among young people, rural residents, and those who are aware of its implementation.
  • At the same time, only 17% are confident that the healthcare system will improve as a result of the reform over the next two years. Twenty-eight percent believe the situation will worsen, while 38% believe it will remain unchanged. Compared to the previous year, the number of those who optimistically assess short-term prospects has decreased. Respondents aged 50 and older are the most pessimistic. In the long-term perspective (5–10 years), respondents assess the situation more optimistically: 52% believe it will improve, 13% believe it will worsen, 14% believe it will not change, and 20% were unable to answer. As before, young people, individuals with higher education, and rural residents are the most optimistic.
  • Thirty-one percent of respondents consult a doctor or medical specialist regarding their health condition or recommendations less than once a year, 21–22% do so once a year or every six months, 15% at least once every three months, and only 11% use such services monthly.
  • The vast majority of respondents (75%) know who their family doctor or therapist is, compared to 58% in 2017. Awareness is higher among women, rural residents, and those who use medical services more frequently. Nearly 70% of all respondents fully or partially trust their family doctor, compared to 53% in 2017. Among those who know their family doctor, 90% trust them.
  • Eighty-two percent of respondents trust medical recommendations from healthcare workers, 68% trust relatives and acquaintances, and 67% trust pharmacists. Trust in medical information from the Internet, television, print media, and radio is significantly lower. Eleven percent trust information from folk healers, particularly among older respondents. Young people are more inclined to trust information from relatives and the Internet.
  • When choosing a healthcare facility, 50% primarily consider the professionalism and experience of doctors, 42% consider trust in doctors at that institution, 23% consider the attitude of staff toward patients, 20% consider access to preferential services, and 16% consider availability of modern equipment. Comfort and speed of service are less important. Rural residents, younger and middle-aged individuals, and wealthier respondents prioritize professionalism more often. Urban residents and youth value attitude and equipment, while older and less affluent respondents emphasize trust.
  • Sixty-four percent receive medical information from doctors, 40% from friends and family, 29% from pharmacists, 19% from the Internet, and 16% from television. Smaller shares rely on radio, magazines, folk healers, or religious leaders.
  • Sixteen percent measure blood pressure daily, 28% several times a month, while others do so less frequently. One third of respondents have never experienced blood pressure problems, while others report varying frequency. Problems are more common among women and older individuals and among those experiencing higher stress.
  • Ten percent measure body weight daily, while younger people and women do so more frequently. Forty percent undergo electrocardiograms less than once a year, while those with health issues do so more often. Nearly half check blood sugar less than once a year, and over half check cholesterol less than once a year.
  • Half of respondents reported normal blood pressure at last measurement, while one third reported elevated levels. Most reported normal weight and normal blood sugar and cholesterol levels.
  • Nearly half have never sought medical care related to cardiovascular diseases. Those who did are more often urban residents, women, and older individuals.
  • Thirty percent believe there are enough cardiovascular treatment facilities in their locality, while half believe there are not. Rural residents are more critical.
  • As in the previous year, the majority of respondents (81%) know nothing about Rivne region’s participation in the World Bank and Ministry of Health project “Improving Health Care at the Service of People.” Nevertheless, 76% believe its implementation is important. Among those aware of the project, over 90% consider it very important. More than half believe the project will improve the cardiovascular health situation in the region.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zaporizhzhia Region
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2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Zaporizhzhia region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 8% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 36% consider the situation in their home region to be calm and 55% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Almost 58% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 29% describe it as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 33% and 46% of respondents see the situation as tense, while only about 10% consider it critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country worse, at 12%, than that of the region, at 19%, or their own city or village, at 27%. Assessments of the direction of development of both the country and local areas are particularly critical among rural residents.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral. The vast majority believe that the situation both in Ukraine as a whole and at the local level will not change in the coming year. One in six respondents has optimistic expectations about the future, while another 13–14% believe that the situation will worsen.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 67% of respondents, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 42%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, mentioned by 63%, rising prices for basic goods and inflation, mentioned by 49%, and low wages and pensions, mentioned by 47%.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.0% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Yurii Boiko is supported by 18.3%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 14.1%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.4%, Oleh Liashko by 7.5%, Yevhen Murayev by 6.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 5.1%, and Vadym Rabinovych by 3.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 18% of respondents do not want to participate in voting, and another 13% have not decided on a candidate.
  • Almost one quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has tripled. Fifteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 22% in 2017. About 10% expect Yurii Boiko to win. No more than 4% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in victory is mainly observed among supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 60% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna and the Opposition Bloc are the leaders. They are supported by 24.0% and 21.6% respectively among those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 11.3%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9.3%, the Radical Party by 7.0%, the party “Nashi” by 6.1%, Civic Position by 5.9%, and “For Life” by 4.5%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, one quarter of respondents do not intend to participate in elections, and another 13% have not decided on a party.
  • A candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 65%, personal leadership qualities, cited by 58%, experience in politics, cited by 53%, and ability to ensure stability in the country, cited by 52%, are the motives that most strongly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 38%, the presence of a strong team around the candidate is more important, 37% say that ensuring radical change matters more to them, and 30% are guided primarily by ideological views. Forty percent also noted that belonging to a new generation of politicians is important to them. This latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. Orientation toward cooperation with the European Union is important for 42%, while 30% place greater importance on cooperation with Russia. Respondents assess equally the importance of a candidate’s focus on solving problems both at the national and regional levels.
  • Forty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Another 26% believe that the situation will improve, and only 14% think it will worsen. Supporters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided expect positive changes less often.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level, cited by 40%, than at the local level, cited by 19%. An additional 40% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
  • At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections, while another 28% take a neutral position. Fifty-five percent oppose this form of campaigning. Respondents from wealthier groups are the most negative toward such practices.
  • Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities significantly better than that of the central authorities. Only 10% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko, 11% are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, almost 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities. Assessments are more critical in rural areas.
  • As in the previous year, 29% of respondents stated that they are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration. The share of those satisfied with the work of city or village heads also remained unchanged at 48%. At the same time, over the year the share of those dissatisfied with the regional state administration increased from 53% to 62%, and dissatisfaction with city or village heads increased from 44% to 47%. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among urban residents than among rural residents.
  • Respondents somewhat more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. At the same time, about 70% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 7–11% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. The situation in school education, personal safety, and road conditions receives relatively better evaluations. The worst assessments concern the fight against bribery at the local level. Over the past year, there have been virtually no changes across most criteria. Assessments of safety, road conditions, and agricultural development have improved somewhat, while evaluations of school education have worsened.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest. The lowest-rated opportunities are engaging in entrepreneurship and finding a job. Opportunities for leisure, achieving success, job search, and entrepreneurship are assessed relatively better by urban residents. Safety of life is rated worst by residents of the regional center. Wealthier respondents assess all opportunities more positively than poorer ones.
  • Respondents rate the economic development potential of Ukraine higher, at 26%, than that of the region, at 19%, and their own city, at 17%, over the next 5–10 years. More than 30% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, and 7–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Rural residents assess growth potential more critically.
  • Sixty-one percent of respondents feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 29% hold the opposite view. Slightly more respondents feel proud to be residents of their region, at 64%, and of their city or village, at 72%. At the same time, one in four to one in five respondents does not feel pride in belonging to their locality. A somewhat higher level of pride is observed among younger respondents. Most often, respondents cited history, at 52%, and nature, at 45%, as sources of regional pride. Thirty-seven percent are proud of local landmarks, 33% of local traditions, 19% of culture and art, 15% of local residents, and 14% of industry.
  • Seventy-three percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 20% hold the opposite view. Feelings of happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents. Conversely, one quarter of older respondents and more than one third of those in the poorest category consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region most often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Dnipropetrovsk region. They also somewhat more often selected Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often consider themselves close to Russia and Belarus.
  • Almost 34% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 55% expressed the opposite view. Four percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger respondents. Among wealthier respondents, 15% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% would choose trade. Ten to eleven percent would choose entertainment and leisure services, farming, or real estate sales and leasing. Eight to nine percent would choose IT, public catering, tourism, or the beauty and health industry.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents who would not like to work abroad decreased from 71% to 61%. At the same time, the share of those wishing to work in another country increased from 25% to 29%. Among those wishing to work abroad, 44% are willing in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 41% do not have such intentions. Migration aspirations are highest among youth, at 50%, urban residents, at 32%, and wealthier respondents, at 36%.
  • Forty-three percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twenty-nine percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 24% support granting it the status of a state language.
  • Fifty-four percent of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 31% hold the opposite view. Another 15% were undecided.
  • Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased somewhat from 42% to 38%. Support for NATO membership also declined from 34% to 32%. When choosing one direction of international integration, 33% support integration with the European Union, 14% support accession to the Customs Union, and 39% favor equidistance from both the EU and Russia. Over the year, the share of supporters of equidistance decreased from 44% to 39%, while the share supporting accession to the Customs Union increased from 11% to 14%, as did the share of those undecided on this issue, from 5% to 15%.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Luhansk Region
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All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Luhansk region between November 16 and December 16, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results shows that respondents assess the situation in their place of residence relatively better than the situation in the region as a whole and in the country overall.
  • Only 5% of respondents described the political situation in the country as calm. Ten percent consider the situation in their home region to be calm, while 31% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Around 50% of respondents view the situation in the country and in the region as tense, and 34–42% describe it as critical. In their own settlement, 40% consider the situation tense and 25% critical.
  • Respondents also assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country (10%) and the region (9%) somewhat worse than that of their own city or village (17%). The local situation is evaluated more positively by residents of smaller settlements and by younger respondents.
  • Overall expectations among residents of the region are predominantly neutral-negative. About 25–26% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen in the coming year. A relative majority, 42–43%, believe that the situation will not change, while 15–16% express optimistic expectations for the near future. Optimistic views are somewhat more common in small towns and villages and among younger respondents.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine is considered the most serious nationwide problem by residents of the region, with 68% identifying it as such. In addition, 41% regard unemployment as a major problem. At the personal level, respondents are primarily concerned about rising utility tariffs (47%), followed by the war in Donbas (45%) and low wages and pensions (42%). At the personal level, low income, the military conflict, and language issues concern residents of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk more strongly. For residents of Sievierodonetsk, inflation, corruption, and the healthcare sector are also more significant concerns, while for residents of Lysychansk and smaller settlements unemployment is a particularly pressing issue.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yurii Boiko, supported by 22.5% of respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliia Tymoshenko is supported by 13.4%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 12.5%, Yevhen Murayev by 12.2%, Oleh Liashko by 8.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 6.1%, Vadym Rabinovych by 3.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 3.3%, and Serhii Taruta by 3.1%. Other candidates have ratings not exceeding 3%. At the same time, 32% of residents have not decided on a candidate, and nearly 16% do not intend to participate in the elections.
  • Twenty-three percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election, which is almost five times higher than in the previous year. Eleven percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 6% in 2017. Approximately 6% consider a victory by Yurii Boiko or Volodymyr Zelenskyi likely. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in electoral success is mainly observed among supporters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Sixty-one percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, the Opposition Bloc leads with the support of 23.7% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. Batkivshchyna is supported by 13.3%, the party “Nashi” by 11.1%, the party “Servant of the People” by 9.8%, “For Life” by 8.8%, the Radical Party by 6.6%, the party “Our Land” by 4.4%, and Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 4.1%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, nearly one in four residents have not decided which party to support, and one in five does not intend to vote.
  • The ability of a candidate to ensure stability in the country (70%), a socio-economic program (62%), and a focus on solving the problems of the country and the region (60%) are the motives that most strongly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Additionally, 54% choose a candidate because of leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 51%, experience in state politics is important, while 41% say that belonging to a new generation of politicians matters more. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. For 41%, a candidate’s orientation toward cooperation with Russia is important, particularly among supporters of Boiko and Murayev, while for 37% cooperation with the European Union is more important, especially among supporters of Poroshenko.
  • Forty-one percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Twenty-nine percent expect it to improve, and 15% expect it to worsen. Supporters of Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote expect positive changes less frequently.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level (54%) and at the regional level (48%) than in their own city or village (40%). About 30% of respondents also allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Sixteen percent believe that there will be no falsifications in their locality.
  • Nearly one third of residents in the region have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Another 23% take a neutral stance, while about half, 47%, oppose this form of campaigning. Younger respondents, residents of Sievierodonetsk, and poorer population groups are more favorable toward such practices.
  • Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities somewhat better than that of regional and central authorities. Only 7% are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko, 9% with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and just 3% with the Verkhovna Rada. More than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
  • Only 10% are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration, while 67% are dissatisfied. However, over the year the share of those satisfied increased from 2% to 10%. Satisfaction with the work of city and village heads also increased noticeably, from 21% to 31%. Residents of small towns and villages are the most satisfied with local leaders, while residents of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk are the least satisfied.
  • About 54% believe that the situation with bribery has worsened at the national level, and 38–46% hold the same view regarding the local level. Around 26–30% see no changes in corruption either nationwide or locally. Only 6–8% reported a decrease in corruption in the country and in the region.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors. The situation in school education, public safety, and the environment receives relatively better evaluations. Over the past year, improvements are observed in youth support, while deterioration is noted in school education, environmental conditions, and the fight against corruption. Industrial development receives the most negative evaluations.
  • Overall, respondents assess the level of opportunities across all areas as low. Opportunities to live safely and to rest and spend leisure time are evaluated relatively better, while the ability to find a job is evaluated the worst. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by younger and wealthier respondents. Residents of Lysychansk and rural areas give lower evaluations, while residents of Sievierodonetsk and other small towns give higher ones.
  • Only 4–5% see high economic development potential for Ukraine and their locality over the next 5–10 years. Around 22% assess the potential as moderate, while 35–37% consider it low. Another 21–25% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Residents of small towns and villages and younger respondents assess growth potential more positively.
  • Fifty-five percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, a sentiment slightly more common among the oldest respondents. Thirty-five percent do not feel such pride. About 60% feel proud to be residents of their region, and 66% of their city or village, although nearly one third do not take pride in their local origin. Respondents most often cited nature (33%) and history (27%) as sources of regional pride. Additionally, 20% are proud of local residents, 13% of sporting achievements, and 10–11% of economic activity and natural resources. Twelve percent stated that nothing makes them proud of their region.
  • More than 60% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 32% hold the opposite view. Feelings of happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents. Conversely, 44% of older respondents and 48% of those in the poorest group consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region most often report cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Among neighboring countries, they consider themselves closest to Russia, and somewhat less close to Belarus.
  • About 35% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 5% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A slightly higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of Sievierodonetsk and other small towns, as well as among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 32% would choose trade, while about 13% would choose construction or farming.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents who expressed a desire to work abroad increased from 21% to 31%. Among them, 60% are willing to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 35% are not. Traditionally, migration intentions are highest among youth (59%) and wealthier respondents (43%).
  • Thirty-nine percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, while another 28% support granting it official status in certain regions. Thirty-one percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
  • Only 30% consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Fifty-five percent hold the opposite view, and 15% are undecided.
  • Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased slightly over the year, from 27% to 30%, while opposition also increased, from 33% to 47%. Support for NATO membership remained almost unchanged at 21–23%, but opposition to joining the North Atlantic Alliance rose from 36% to 60%. Regarding foreign economic integration, 23% support a pro-European vector, 25% support joining the Customs Union, which is twice as high as in 2017, while 35% favor equidistance between Russia and the West, compared to 46% in 2017.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Mykolaiv Region
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All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Mykolaiv region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 5% of respondents described the political situation in the country as calm, while 21% consider the situation in their home region to be calm and 33% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Almost 68% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 25% describe it as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 50% and 60% of respondents see the situation as tense, while only about 12–15% consider it critical.
  • Respondents also assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country and the region somewhat worse, at 12% and 13% respectively, than that of their own city or village, which stands at 17%.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral. More than 40% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine as a whole and at the local level will not change in the coming year. One in five believes that it will worsen, while 15% have optimistic expectations about the future. Residents of rural areas are the least likely to expect improvements both at the national and local levels.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74% of respondents, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 55%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (62%), low wages and pensions (61%), and rising prices for basic goods and inflation (50%). Problems such as low wages and pensions and inflation are felt more acutely in the regional center and in rural areas. Residents of small towns more often mentioned the inability to obtain quality medical care.
  • The leaders of the presidential rating in the region are Yuliia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi, supported by 20.3% and 19.8% respectively among those who have decided and intend to vote. Yurii Boiko is supported by 15.2%, Oleh Liashko by 8.2%, Petro Poroshenko by 6.4%, Yevhen Murayev by 6.3%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 5.0%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.6%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost one third of residents of the region have not decided on a candidate, and one in six does not intend to participate in voting.
  • Almost 16% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has nearly doubled. Six percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 8% in 2017. Four percent expect Yurii Boiko to win, and 3% expect Volodymyr Zelenskyi to win. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in victory is mainly observed among supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Sixty-four percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 19.5% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 16.6%, the Opposition Bloc by 14.6%, the Radical Party by 9.2%, the party “Nashi” by 6.3%, “For Life” by 5.9%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 5.5%, and Civic Position by 4.6%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, nearly 28% of residents of the region have not decided which party to support, and 22% do not intend to participate in voting.
  • Personal leadership qualities of a candidate, cited by 69%, and their socio-economic program, cited by 64%, are the motives that most strongly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 57%, experience in state politics is important, while 38% say that belonging to a new generation of politicians matters more. This latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems overall is a motive for 53% of respondents, while for 40% it is important that the candidate also focuses on solving regional problems. Orientation toward cooperation with the European Union is important for 48%, while 23% place greater importance on cooperation with Russia. Respondents are evenly divided between preferring a candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country and support for radical change.
  • Twenty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 13% think it will worsen. About one quarter of respondents were unable to answer this question. Supporters of Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, and Boiko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided expect positive changes less often.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level, cited by 62%, than at the local level, cited by 37%. An additional 25–35% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
  • Only 8% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position, while 70% oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of small towns and poorer respondents are more favorable toward such practices.
  • Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities much better than that of the central authorities. Only 8% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and just 3% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
  • Over the course of the year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration declined from 27% to 13%, as did satisfaction with the work of city and village heads, from 40% to 32%. The share of those dissatisfied with the regional state administration and with city or village heads increased compared to the previous year, from 51% to 72% and from 45% to 59% respectively. The lowest level of satisfaction with the regional state administration is observed in the regional center, while dissatisfaction with city or village heads is highest in small towns.
  • Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or in their place of residence. About 60% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 3–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. The situation in school education receives relatively better evaluations. The worst assessments concern the fight against bribery at the local level, industrial development, and youth support. Over the past year, negative dynamics are observed across all criteria.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest-rated opportunity is achieving success. All opportunities are evaluated relatively higher by residents of the regional center and lowest by residents of rural areas. Younger and wealthier respondents assess all opportunities more positively than older and poorer respondents.
  • About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess the potential as moderate. More than one third see low potential, and 6–13% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. One in five respondents hesitated to answer, most of whom are residents of rural areas. Residents of small towns assess growth potential somewhat higher.
  • More than half of respondents, 57%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 24% hold the opposite view. Slightly more respondents feel proud to be residents of their region, at 61%, and of their city or village, at 65%. At the same time, 17–19% do not feel pride in belonging to a particular region. Most often, respondents cited nature, at 42%, and history, at 39%, as sources of regional pride. Pride in local residents was cited by 25%, traditions by 19%, culture and art and natural resources by 16% each, sporting achievements by 15%, prominent regional figures by 13%, and agriculture as well as science and education by 11% each.
  • Almost 55% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 28% hold the opposite view. Feelings of happiness are more common among urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Conversely, 38% of older respondents and 48% of those in the poorest category consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Odesa and Kherson regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often consider themselves closest to Belarus and Russia, and less frequently to Poland and Moldova.
  • Almost 24% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 57% have no such aspirations. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Within the middle-income group, 12% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 39% would choose trade, 18% farming, 7–9% transport services, entertainment and leisure, or construction, and 6% auto services, tourism, and the beauty and health industry.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents who expressed a desire to work abroad has remained almost unchanged at 31%. At the same time, the share of those who do not seek employment abroad declined from 64% to 59%. Thirty-nine percent are willing in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 40% do not express such intentions. Traditionally, migration aspirations are highest among youth, at 58%, and wealthier respondents, at 37%. Residents of small towns and villages are more inclined to consider working abroad than residents of the regional center.
  • Sixty percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nineteen percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, and 16% support granting it official status in certain regions.
  • Forty-two percent of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 34% hold the opposite view. Nearly one quarter were undecided.
  • Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased from 34% to 39%, and support for NATO membership rose from 23% to 27%. At the same time, the share of opponents decreased. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the majority support equidistance between Russia and the West, at 44%. Over the past year, the share of those favoring accession to the Customs Union declined from 14% to 9%, while support for a pro-European vector increased from 30% to 34%.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Donetsk Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Donetsk region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results shows that respondents assess the situation in the country as a whole and in the region worse than the situation in their own city or village.
  • Only 4% of respondents described the political situation in the country as calm. Eight percent consider the situation in their home region to be calm, while 27% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Almost 48% of respondents view the situation in the country and in the region as tense, and around 40% describe it as critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own city or village are somewhat better: 40% describe it as tense and 25% as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents evaluate the correctness of the direction of development of the country and the region worse (around 12%) than that of their own city or village (26%). Residents of Mariupol assess the direction of development in their city or village more positively than residents of other cities and villages. Higher evaluations are also more common among older respondents.
  • Overall expectations among residents of the region are predominantly negative or neutral. About 45% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will not change in the coming year. Between 18% and 24% believe that it will worsen. Optimistic expectations are expressed by 14–19% of respondents. Respondents somewhat more often expect deterioration at the national level than at the local level.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine is considered the main nationwide problem by residents of the region, with 68% identifying it as such. At the personal level, respondents are also concerned about the war in Donbas (51%), rising utility tariffs (47%), and low wages and pensions (45%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions and inflation are felt more acinclude among rural residents and residents of Mariupol. Urban residents more often mention rising utility tariffs and unfavorable conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yurii Boiko, supported by 19.2% of respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 16.1%, Yevhen Murayev by 13.9%, Yuliia Tymoshenko by 12.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 6.1%, Oleh Liashko by 5.9%, Vadym Rabinovych by 5.8%, and Serhii Taruta and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 3.2% each. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, nearly 13% of residents have not decided whom to support, and 14% would not participate in the vote.
  • Yuliia Tymoshenko is the candidate whose victory respondents believe in the most. Over the past year, the share of those confident in her victory increased from 11% to 19%. About 12% believe in a victory by Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Eleven percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 13% in 2017. Nearly 9% believe Yurii Boiko will win. No more than 4% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in electoral success is most common among supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Zelenskyi, and Boiko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 60% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, the Opposition Bloc leads with 19.3% among those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 15.4%, Batkivshchyna by 13.5%, the party “Nashi” by 12.7%, “For Life” by 10.0%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 5.6%, the Radical Party by 5.1%, “Osnova” by 3.6%, and “Civic Position” by 2.9%. Other parties have ratings below 2%. At the same time, nearly one in ten residents has not decided which party to support, and one in six does not intend to vote.
  • The ability of a candidate to ensure stability in the country (65%) and their socio-economic program (62%) are the most influential motives in respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-five percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 38% place greater importance on the presence of a strong team. For 52%, experience in state politics is important, while 37% say that belonging to a new generation of politicians matters more. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. Orientation toward solving national problems is a motive for 39% of respondents, while for a majority of 58% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems. For 40%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important, while for 34% cooperation with Russia is more important. Another 26% were unable to answer this question.
  • Thirty-three percent of respondents expect the situation in Ukraine to improve as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Thirty-five percent believe it will not change, and only 14% believe it will worsen. About one fifth were undecided. Supporters of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko most often expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided are less optimistic.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level (54%) than at the regional (46%) or local (37%) levels. Around 30% also allow for minor falsifications.
  • At the same time, 21% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-nine percent take a neutral stance, while 48% oppose this form of campaigning. Rural residents are more favorable toward such practices.
  • Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Eight percent are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko, 11% with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. More than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities. More critical assessments of the President and Prime Minister are found in rural areas.
  • Over the year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration decreased from 28% to 17%, while dissatisfaction increased from 46% to 59%. Satisfaction with the work of city and village mayors remained at 47%, as in the previous year. Residents of Mariupol are more satisfied with their local leaders than residents of small towns and villages.
  • Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption at the national level than at the regional or local level. Between 37% and 40% believe the situation with bribery has not changed at any level. Only 6–11% believe corruption has decreased.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Over the past year, most indicators show either negative dynamics or no change. Respondents assess road conditions, school education, and public safety and crime prevention relatively better. Declines are noted in indices related to school education, social protection, youth support, healthcare, industrial development, and anti-corruption efforts. The last two areas received the lowest evaluations.
  • Overall, respondents assess opportunities in the region as low. Leisure and recreation opportunities receive relatively better evaluations, while the worst assessments concern living in safety. Residents of Mariupol rate opportunities for leisure, success, and employment higher than residents of small towns and villages. Opportunities for entrepreneurship are rated slightly higher by rural residents. At the same time, rural residents assess safety opportunities more pessimistically. Wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than poorer ones.
  • Only 3–5% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, or their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Around 30% assess it as moderate. More than one third see low potential, and 15–17% see no potential for economic growth at all. Rural residents assess the development potential of the country and region less critically. Residents of Mariupol rate the development potential of their city higher than residents of small towns and villages.
  • Fifty-three percent of respondents feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 29% feel the opposite. Pride is even higher regarding their region (67%) and their city or village (72%). Respondents most often cite nature (33%) and history (29%) as sources of pride. Sporting achievements are mentioned by 27%, industry and local residents by 26% each, natural resources by 23%, notable people by 20%, traditions by 17%, culture and arts by 14%, and landmarks by 12%.
  • Sixty-four percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 29% do not. Feelings of happiness are more common among rural residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Conversely, 32% of older respondents and 41% of the poorest consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region most often note cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. They also report some closeness to Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Luhansk regions, and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Among neighboring countries, respondents feel closest to Russia and Belarus, and partially to Poland and Moldova.
  • Nearly 40% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 49% expressed the opposite view. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns and villages, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 20% already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 33% would choose trade, 19% entertainment and recreation, 14–15% tourism and construction, 10–11% beauty and health services, catering, and farming.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents who would like to work abroad increased from 21% to 35%. Among them, 58% are willing to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine, while 34% are not. Migration intentions are highest among youth (57%) and wealthier respondents (46%).
  • Thirty-seven percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, 30% support granting it official status in certain regions, and 31% believe Ukrainian should be the only state language.
  • Thirty-two percent consider Russia an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 51% hold the opposite view and 17% were undecided.
  • Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased from 25% to 30%, while opposition remained unchanged at 48%. Opposition to NATO membership increased from 56% to 62%, while support stands at 18%, compared to 21% in 2017. Regarding foreign economic integration, 42% support equidistance between Russia and the West, compared to 39% in 2017. About 22% support EU membership, and approximately the same share support joining the Customs Union.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Sumy Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Sumy region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 39% see the situation in the region as calm and 47% describe the situation in their own city or village as calm. Sixty-three percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 25% as critical. In the region, 42% see the situation as tense, while in their own city or village this figure is 35%, and only about 10% consider the local situation to be critical.
  • Respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country at 14%, which is worse than assessments of their home region at 21% and their own city or village at 23%. Representatives of the older generation and residents of rural areas are somewhat more optimistic in these assessments.
  • Despite negative evaluations of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 15% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and locally will improve next year. The overwhelming majority think that the situation will not change, at 46–47%. At the same time, 22–23% believe that the situation will worsen.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74%, is considered the largest nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 58%, as well as low incomes and inflation, cited by 51% each. At the level of personal concerns, low income and high prices are less troubling for residents of small towns, while they are more acute for residents of the regional center and rural areas.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 23.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 10.3%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 10.0%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 9.7%, Yurii Boiko by 8.2%, Oleh Liashko by 6.9%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 5.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 3.5%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 3.0%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 22.1% of respondents have not decided on a candidate, and another 14.2% do not intend to participate in voting.
  • Seventeen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased somewhat. Eight percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 10% in 2017. About 4% consider a victory by Yurii Boiko to be likely, while 3% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi or Anatolii Hrytsenko as likely winners, and 2% see Oleh Liashko as such. Fewer than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-three percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna is the leader, supported by 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 10.1%, Civic Position by 9.5%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 7.9%, the Radical Party by 5.6%, and UKROP by 5.1%. Other parties have ratings of no more than 4%. At the same time, 20.2% have not decided on a party choice, and 17.2% do not intend to participate in elections.
  • When choosing motives for voting for presidential candidates, 53% take into account the candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, while 18% consider cooperation with Russia, which is more relevant for supporters of Yurii Boiko. For 53%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while for 31% the candidate’s team matters. A socio-economic program is a motive for 49%, while 34% pay more attention to the candidate’s ideological views. Forty-six percent believe it is important that the candidate be oriented toward solving the country’s problems, while for 35% attention to both the country and their region is important. For 48%, experience in politics is important, while 34% say that belonging to the group of “new politicians” matters more to them, especially among younger voters and supporters of Yevhenii Muraiev, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 36% choose radical change, while 45% prefer stability.
  • Twenty-six percent believe that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming elections, 24% think it will worsen, and 22% believe it will improve. Supporters of Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko most often expect positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
  • Forty-six percent of respondents consider electoral fraud at the national level to be likely, 39% consider it likely at the regional level, and 35% at the level of their city or village. Another approximately 35% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Twelve percent believe that there will definitely be no fraud in their settlement.
  • Fifteen percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-eight percent take a neutral position, while 53% oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of rural areas and the poorest respondents are more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities better than that of the central authorities. Only 8% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
  • Over the past year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged, at 21–22%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads has increased slightly from 26% to 29%. Satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher among rural residents.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption at the national level, cited by 41%, than in the region or at their place of residence, cited by 29–30%. Forty-six percent believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at the central level, while 53–55% hold the same view regarding their local area. Only 2–3% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Overall, relatively better evaluations are given to school education and the development of agriculture. In most sectors, negative dynamics or a lack of change are observed. Assessments of social protection and agricultural development have increased somewhat, while evaluations of ecology, healthcare, and the fight against corruption have declined noticeably. The latter area received the worst assessments.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest, and finding a job the lowest. Almost all areas of opportunity are rated higher by wealthier respondents and residents of the regional center. Younger respondents also give higher evaluations, with the exception of opportunities for entrepreneurship.
  • Only 6–9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 30% assess the potential as moderate. Between 42% and 44% see low potential, while 9–10% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, whether in Ukraine, the region, or their own settlement. Residents of small towns and younger respondents assess growth potential somewhat more positively.
  • Seventy-one percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 18% hold the opposite view. The same share, 71%, feel proud to be residents of their region, and 74% of their city or village. People of middle age feel pride somewhat less often. Most often, pride in the region is associated with nature, cited by 47%, and history, cited by 46%. Twenty-three percent are proud of local residents, 21% of local traditions, 18% of culture and art, and 15% of landmarks.
  • About 55% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 28% hold the opposite view. Feelings of personal happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents and residents of cities. At the same time, 33% of rural residents, 35% of older respondents, and 48% of the poorest respondents consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Poltava and Kharkiv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Belarus, somewhat less to Russia, and partially to Poland.
  • About one third expressed a desire to start their own business, while more than half, 54%, do not have such a desire. Only 4% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 21% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 25% would choose trade, 15% construction and repairs, 11–12% logistics, entertainment, and beauty services, 10% auto service or IT, and slightly under 10% tourism, farming, and real estate.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents wishing to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 38–39%, while the number of those who do not want to do so increased slightly from 52% to 56%. Forty-six percent of those wishing to emigrate are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 35% are not. Migration aspirations are highest among youth, at 69%, wealthier respondents, at 46–51%, and residents of the regional center, at 42%.
  • About 60% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twenty-two percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 10% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
  • Sixty percent consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, 22% hold the opposite view, and 18% were unable to answer.
  • Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased over the year from 50% to 55%, as did support for NATO membership, from 37% to 45%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 47%, accession to the Customs Union is supported by 9%, and 24% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from both Russia and the West.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Chernivtsi Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Chernivtsi region between November 16 and December 5, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 7% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while one third of respondents consider the situation in their home region to be calm and almost half perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. More than 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and one quarter describe it as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 31% and 42% of respondents see the situation as tense, while one in ten considers it critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country significantly worse, at 12%, than that of the region, at 20%, or their own city or village, at 27%. While assessments of the country’s direction of development are almost equally critical among residents of different types of settlements, negative assessments of the direction of development at the local level are significantly more common among residents of the regional center.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Between 22% and 25% have optimistic expectations for the future, most notably regarding their own settlement. Between 43% and 44% believe that the situation will not change. At the same time, 13–18% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and locally will worsen in the coming year.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 67% of respondents, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 45%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs and low wages and pensions, cited by 53% and 51% respectively. These problems concern residents of the entire region equally, while rising prices for basic goods are somewhat more significant for residents of small towns, and bribery and corruption in government are more significant for residents of the regional center.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 21.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 11.9%, Yurii Boiko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 10.7% and 10.5% respectively, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 8.8%, Oleh Liashko by 8.2%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 7.3%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 6.2%, and Andrii Sadovyi and Arsenii Yatseniuk by 4.1% each. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 16.6% of residents of the region have not decided on a candidate.
  • Seventeen point seven percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has almost doubled. One in ten respondents is confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, which is more than one and a half times lower than last year’s figure of 17%. Six percent of respondents see Yurii Boiko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi as potential winners. Fewer than 5% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 44% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna is the leader, supported by 22.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 12.2%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” and the Opposition Bloc by 11% each, Civic Position and the Radical Party by 8.9% and 8.3% respectively, UKROP by 6.5%, and the People’s Front and Samopomich by 4.8% each. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost 19% of residents of the region have not decided on a party, and one in ten does not intend to vote.
  • Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 84%, is the motive that has the strongest determining influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For two thirds, the candidate’s socio-economic program is significant, while for 29%, ideological views are more important. For 60%, personal leadership qualities and orientation toward solving nationwide problems are important, while for 31–35%, the presence of a strong team and orientation toward solving both national and regional problems matter more. Fifty-five percent focus on the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country, while 40% say that maintaining stability is more important to them. Fifty-seven percent choose based on the candidate’s experience in state politics, while 35%, on the contrary, are attracted by the candidate’s belonging to a new generation of politicians.
  • More than one third of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. The same share believes that the situation will not change, while one in ten says it will worsen, and another one in five is undecided. Supporters of Tymoshenko, Zelenskyi, and Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote. Moreover, more than 40% of the latter expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level, cited by 50%, than at the local level, cited by 35–40%. An additional 27–32% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications at all levels.
  • One in ten respondents has a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Almost 20% take a neutral position on this issue. On the other hand, two thirds oppose this form of campaigning. Representatives of the oldest age group are somewhat more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities significantly better than that of the central authorities. Only one in ten respondents is satisfied with the work of President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
  • Over the past year, the level of satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration decreased from 30% to 22%, as did satisfaction with the work of city or village heads, from 38% to 34%. The most critical attitudes toward local authorities are expressed by residents of the regional center.
  • Respondents notice an increase in corruption more often at the national level than in the region or at their place of residence. More than half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 2–4% reported a decrease in corruption at the national and regional levels, while at the level of their own settlement, one in ten respondents reported such a decrease.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were recorded for school education and road conditions. Over the year, negative dynamics were observed for most criteria, most notably in school education, healthcare, ecology, and the fight against bribery. Road conditions are an exception, as assessments in this area have improved. The worst evaluations concern the fight against corruption at the local level.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest, and engaging in entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure, personal safety, achieving success, job search, and entrepreneurship are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center. The lowest assessments across all opportunities are given by the oldest and poorest respondents.
  • Only 6–8% of respondents see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the potential as moderate. At the same time, 28–32% see low economic development potential, and one in ten sees no prospects for economic growth at all, especially for Ukraine. Younger people are naturally more optimistic in their assessments.
  • An absolute majority of respondents feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, at 81%, and especially residents of their region, at 84%, and their city or village, at 87%. Most often, respondents cited local traditions, at 41%, as a source of regional pride, while about one quarter are proud of the region’s history and nature. One in five is proud of local residents, culture, and art, and 17% of notable figures from the region.
  • The vast majority of respondents, 80%, consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while almost one in ten holds the opposite view. Feelings of personal happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents, as well as residents of small towns and villages.
  • Forty percent of respondents noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Ivano-Frankivsk region, while almost one quarter indicated closeness to Ternopil and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Romania, Poland, and Moldova.
  • More than one third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business, especially among youth. At the same time, more than 40% do not have such intentions, with the lowest interest observed among the oldest age group and the poorest respondents. Five percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, most often in the regional center, among middle-aged and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, one quarter stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 41% would choose trade. Another 12% would choose public catering or farming, one in ten would choose tourism, construction and repairs, or auto service businesses.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents wishing to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 42% in 2017 and 41% in 2018, while only one third of them are willing in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Thirty-nine percent are not willing to do so. Migration aspirations are highest among youth and middle-aged respondents, at 64% and 45% respectively, urban residents, at 42–44%, and respondents with a middle level of income, at 48%.
  • The vast majority of respondents, 71%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. One in five supports granting Russian official status in certain regions, and only 2% support granting Russian the status of a state language throughout Ukraine.
  • Almost 80% of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. At the same time, one in ten holds the opposite view, and 11% are undecided.
  • Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased slightly from 68% to 70%, while the level of support for NATO integration remained unchanged at 59%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector remains dominant, although its dynamics are somewhat negative, decreasing from 67% to 65%. The share of those supporting equidistance between Ukraine and both Russia and the West increased from 15% to 18%. Support for accession to the Customs Union is currently only 2%, which is three times lower than in the previous year.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zakarpattia Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Zakarpattia region between November 16 and December 13, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that respondents assess the situation at their place of residence more positively than the situation in the region and in the country as a whole.
  • Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm. In their home region, 17% consider the situation calm, while in their own city or village this figure reaches 46%. Sixty-one percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 29% as critical. In the region, 66% consider the situation tense, while assessments are somewhat better in respondents’ own settlements, where 41% see the situation as tense. Only about 5% consider the situation at the local level to be critical.
  • Respondents also assess the correctness of the direction of the country’s development more negatively, at 12%, than that of the region, at 21%, or their own city or village, at 30%. The situation at the local level is assessed more positively by older respondents and residents of smaller towns and villages in the region.
  • Despite negative assessments of the current state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Fifty-six percent believe that the situation in the country will not change, 25% think it will worsen next year, and 10% expect improvement. At the local level, 61–64% believe that the situation will remain unchanged, while 9–13% expect deterioration. Optimistic expectations for the coming year are expressed by 14% regarding the region and by 20% regarding their own settlement.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 77%, is considered the most significant nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are most concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 54%, and low wages and pensions, cited by 51%. At the personal level, problems of unemployment and access to medical services are felt more acutely in villages, while issues related to tariffs, inflation, social protection, corruption, war, and language rights are more troubling for residents of the regional center.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 20.3% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 14.7%, Yurii Boiko by 9.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 8.5%, Oleh Liashko by 8.3%, Vadym Rabinovych by 6.5%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 6.0%, Andrii Sadovyi by 5.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 4.8%, and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 4.2%. Other candidates have ratings not exceeding 3%. One quarter of respondents do not intend to participate in voting, and one in ten residents of the region has not decided on a candidate.
  • Fourteen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election, compared to 11% in 2017. Ten percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 13% in 2017. About 3% consider a victory by Yurii Boiko likely. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is expressed mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Fifty-seven percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna is the leader, supported by 21.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” is supported by 15.1%, the Radical Party by 12.9%, Civic Position by 9.6%, the Opposition Bloc by 9.1%, and Self Reliance and UKROP by 6.1% each. Other parties have ratings below 4%. One in three residents of the region does not intend to vote, and one in nine has not decided on a party choice.
  • A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 83%, and the candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 75%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 52%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while 46% indicate that the candidate’s team is more important. Fifty-two percent choose a candidate primarily based on experience in state politics, while for 43% affiliation with the group of “new politicians” is more important, especially among younger voters and supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. In addition, 53% focus on the candidate’s attention to their region, while 35% prioritize solving national problems. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 54% prefer radical change, while 45% seek stability.
  • Thirty-four percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Twenty-five percent believe the situation will not change, while 22% believe it will worsen. Supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections is higher at the national level, at 58%, than at the regional level, at 41%, or in their city or village, at 33%. Another 30–40% of respondents allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Ten percent believe that there will be no fraud in their settlement.
  • Only 5% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections, while 32% take a neutral position. Fifty-seven percent oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of cities are somewhat more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities more positively than that of central authorities. Only 9–10% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% are satisfied with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the work of the central authorities.
  • Over the year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration increased somewhat, from 22% to 27%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads increased noticeably, from 28% to 41%. Residents of smaller towns and villages in the region express the highest satisfaction with local authorities.
  • About 60% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Twenty-six percent observe an increase in corruption nationwide, while 13–17% observe it at the local level. A decrease in corruption at the national and regional levels was reported by about 11%, and at the level of their own city or village by 18%.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various spheres. The highest evaluations are given to safety and school education. The worst assessments concern ecology and forest preservation, as well as support for youth. Over the past year, improvement has been observed in the area of personal safety, while deterioration has been noted in school education, healthcare, the fight against corruption, and youth support. Other indicators have remained almost unchanged.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest, and the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship the lowest. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by urban residents and wealthier respondents. Safety is rated somewhat higher by middle-aged respondents, while the opportunity to find a job and engage in entrepreneurship is rated higher by middle-aged and older respondents.
  • About 27% see high economic development potential for Ukraine over the next 5–10 years, while for the region and their own city or village this figure is 12–17%. About 50–60% assess the potential as moderate. At the national and regional levels, 15–17% see low potential, while at the level of their own settlement this figure reaches 23%. Only 1–2% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Residents of small towns and middle-aged respondents assess growth potential more positively.
  • The majority of respondents, at 70%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, with the oldest respondents being slightly more likely to feel this way. Eighteen percent do not feel pride. Between 76% and 77% feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village. Most often, respondents cite nature as the main source of pride in their region, at 51%. Thirty-five percent are proud of local traditions, 29% of regional culture and cuisine, 27% of history, 25% of local residents, and 10–12% of natural resources and landmarks.
  • More than 60% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 27% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents, as well as somewhat more rural residents, more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three urban residents and older respondents consider themselves unhappy, as do 40% of respondents from poorer groups.
  • Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Slovakia and Hungary.
  • More than 20% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 9% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. About 40% stated that they do not have such aspirations. A slightly higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns and villages, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among those wishing to start a business, 23% indicated that they would like to engage in trade, while about 13–14% would prefer farming or tourism.
  • Over the past year, the share of respondents wishing to work abroad decreased from 53% to 42%. Fifty-five percent of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 35% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth, at 51%, rural residents, at 44%, and wealthier respondents, at 41–44%.
  • Eighty-two percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language, while 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
  • The absolute majority of respondents, at 86%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 2% hold the opposite view, while 12% are undecided.
  • Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains high at 73%, although the share of those opposed to integration increased from 9% to 16%. Support for NATO membership decreased over the year from 67% to 61%, while the share of those opposed to NATO membership doubled from 10% to 20%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 72%, 21% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Volyn Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Volyn region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 5% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 34% see the situation as calm in their home region and 40% in their own city or village. Almost 65% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 28% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 46% and 52% of respondents consider the situation tense, while only about 10% describe it as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement more negatively, at 20%, than that of the region, at 28%, or their own city or village, at 32%. The state of local affairs is assessed more positively in the regional center, as well as by representatives of the younger generation.
  • Despite negative assessments of the overall situation, expectations for the future among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 7–9% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe it will remain unchanged, while one quarter of respondents have optimistic expectations.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 66%, is the most significant nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 47%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 43%. Low income, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in smaller settlements, while the issue of the military conflict concerns residents of Lutsk more.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 23.4% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 15.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 11.2%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 8.3% each, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.3%, and Oleh Liashko by 6.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate choice.
  • One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by more than one and a half times. Thirteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 15% in 2017. Around 5% consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory likely. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is primarily demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Nearly 42% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 24.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote. UKROP is supported by 15.1%, the Servant of the People party by 11.5%, Civic Position by 8.2%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 7.6%, the Radical Party by 7.5%, Self-Reliance by 5.4%, and the All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” by 3.8%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
  • A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 90%, their focus on solving national problems, cited by 71%, and their socio-economic program, cited by 66%, are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while 41% stated that the presence of a strong team is more important to them. Another 53% choose a candidate based on their experience in public administration, while for 44% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important. The latter is most relevant for younger voters and supporters of Zelenskyi and Vakarchuk. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 50% opt for stability, while 46% are more inclined toward change.
  • Forty-four percent of respondents believe that the situation will not change as a result of the elections, while 36% expect it to improve. Only 9% expect deterioration. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko more often note expectations of positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level, at 42%, is higher than at the local level, at 28–32%. Another approximately half of respondents allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
  • At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Fifteen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Sixty-three percent oppose this type of campaigning. Younger respondents and poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Thus, 18% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more, at 22%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities.
  • Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged at 30%, while satisfaction with the performance of city or village heads has decreased slightly, from 47% to 42%. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center, while satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration is somewhat higher among residents of Lutsk.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption overall in Ukraine than in the region or at their place of residence. Forty-four percent believe that the situation with bribery has either not changed or has worsened at the central level, while 31–33% report growth at the local level. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. At the same time, year-on-year dynamics show a negative trend across most criteria, with the exception of the condition of roads and the fight against crime, where assessments have slightly improved. The situation in school education is rated the best, while the fight against bribery at the local level is rated the worst.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. All areas of opportunity are assessed higher by residents of Lutsk, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents.
  • Only about 8% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Almost 45% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, while 6% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of the regional center and young people assess growth potential more positively.
  • The absolute majority of respondents, at 87%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Even more feel proud to be residents of their region, at 91%, and of their city or village, at 92%. Most often, respondents cite nature, at 50%, as the object of pride in their region. Thirty-one percent are proud of the history of their land, 22–23% of local culture and traditions, 16% of local residents, and 11% of the region’s natural resources.
  • About 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 18% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every third representative of the older generation and of the poorest segments of the population considers themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Lviv and Rivne regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and Belarus.
  • More than 30% expressed a desire to start their own business. Five percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A slightly higher level of desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 17% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% indicated they would like to engage in trade. Ten percent each would like to engage in farming or construction and repair.
  • Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has not changed, remaining at 35–36%. Sixty-one percent of them stated that in the future they are ready to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 55%, residents of small towns, at 36–40%, and wealthier respondents, at 49%.
  • Eighty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Ten percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions. The absolute majority of respondents, at 86%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite view.
  • Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains high at 77%, as does support for accession to NATO at 65%. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 67%. Over time, the number of those supporting Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased from 16% to 23%. Only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ivano-Frankivsk Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Ivano-Frankivsk region between November 16 and December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 35% consider the situation calm in their home region and half of respondents in their own city or village. Two thirds of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 27% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 39% and 51% consider the situation tense, while only 6–9% describe it as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development more negatively, at 13%, than that of the region, at 25%, or their own city or village, at 32%. Assessments of the direction of development of both the country and the region are particularly critical among rural residents, while attitudes toward the direction of development of one’s own city or village are almost equally critical among residents of small towns and villages. Across age groups, assessments are almost equal, though somewhat more negative views are expressed by middle-aged respondents.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 10–13% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. More than half believe it will remain unchanged, while every fifth respondent has optimistic expectations about the future.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 68%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 43%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 50%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 46%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, rising prices, and tariffs are felt more acutely in the regional center, while corruption and unemployment are more pressing in small towns and villages.
  • The leaders of the presidential rating in the region are Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.5% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections, and Oleksandr Shevchenko, supported by 21.8%. Anatolii Hrytsenko is supported by 11.9%, Petro Poroshenko by 11.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 8.7%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 7.6%, and Andrii Sadovyi by 4.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 22.9% of residents of the region have not decided on their candidate choice.
  • Every fifth respondent in the region believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by one third. Thirteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 11%. Oleksandr Shevchenko is seen as the winner by 9%, while Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Anatolii Hrytsenko are each cited by 4%. Fewer than 2% of respondents believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. More than 40% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 23% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party UKROP is supported by 19.6%, Civic Position by 10.5%, Servant of the People by 9.3%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9%, and All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” and Self-Reliance by 8.8% and 8.2% respectively. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice, and every seventh does not intend to vote.
  • A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 90%, is the motive that has the most decisive influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For two thirds, the personal leadership qualities of the candidate are significant. For 59%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical change in the country is important, while 36% state that ensuring stability is more important to them. Fifty-eight percent choose based on the candidate’s socio-economic program and the same share based on the candidate’s orientation toward solving national problems in general, while for 35–37% ideological views and the candidate’s focus on solving both national and regional problems are more important. The choice between experience in state politics and belonging to the generation of “new politicians” stands at 56% versus 37%. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
  • Almost one third of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. A slightly larger share of respondents, at 35%, believe that the situation will not change, while 15% claim that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Petro Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote. Almost half of the latter expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level, at 49%, is higher than at the local level, at 32%. Another approximately 40% allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
  • Every tenth respondent has a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Seventy percent oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of the regional center are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thus, only 13% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, nearly the same share are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities. Assessments are somewhat less critical in small towns.
  • Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration decreased slightly, from 27% to 23%, while satisfaction with the performance of city or village heads, on the contrary, increased somewhat, from 41% to 46%. Residents of the regional center are the most satisfied with the performance of local leaders, with their share exceeding 60%.
  • Respondents more often notice an increase in corruption overall in Ukraine than in the region or at their place of residence. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Only between 5% and 9% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments are given to personal safety and crime prevention, school education, and the condition of roads. In year-on-year dynamics, most criteria show negative trends, particularly in school education and the fight against bribery, or no change at all. An exception is agricultural development, where assessments have improved. At present, respondents express the most negative views regarding the state of the environment and forest conservation.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship are assessed relatively higher by residents of the regional center. The lowest assessments across all opportunities are given by the oldest and poorest respondents.
  • Every tenth respondent sees high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, while 5–6% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationwide and locally. Residents of the regional center and young people assess growth potential less critically.
  • The absolute majority of respondents, at 86–87%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine and residents of their region and their city or village. Most often, respondents cite traditions, nature, and the history of their region, at around 50%, as sources of pride. Nearly one third are proud of the culture and arts of their region. One in five takes pride in culinary traditions and local residents, while 13% cite notable people of the region.
  • Eighty percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 14% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every fifth older person and every third respondent with a low income consider themselves unhappy.
  • More than half of respondents in the region noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv region, and about one third to residents of Ternopil region. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves closest to Poland.
  • One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. More such respondents are recorded in small towns, among middle-aged individuals and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, one in five stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 32% would like to engage in trade. Another 17% are interested in tourism, 11% each in the hotel business and the beauty and wellness industry, and 10% in construction as well as entertainment and leisure.
  • Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad has changed little, increasing from 44% to 46%, while half of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, and 35% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth and middle-aged respondents, at 63% and 57% respectively, residents of small towns, at 51%, and respondents with high and medium income levels, at around 50%.
  • The absolute majority, at 94%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Similarly, the same share of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine.
  • Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased slightly, from 89% to 87%, while support for integration into NATO fell significantly, from 87% to 78%. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector remains dominant. At the same time, the dynamics here are negative, declining from 89% to 80%. The number of respondents who cannot decide on this issue has increased. Every tenth respondent continues to support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from both Russia and the West. Only 1% support accession to the Customs Union.
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“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kherson Region
All
All
2018
19.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kherson region between November 16 and December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region generally assess the situation in the country poorly, while evaluating conditions at the local level somewhat more positively.
  • Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 8% consider the situation calm in their home region and 15% in their own city or village. Fifty-eight percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 38% as critical. At the local level, between 62% and 69% of respondents consider the situation tense, while about 20% describe it as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development more negatively, at 10%, than that of the region, at 15%, or their own city or village, at 21%. Residents of the regional center assess the situation at the local level more positively than the situation in the country as a whole.
  • Overall expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. More than half believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and at the local level, will not change next year. Between 11% and 13% have optimistic expectations about the future. At the same time, about one quarter believe that the situation will worsen.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74%, is considered the main nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 63%, low wages and pensions, cited by 48%, and rising prices for goods, cited by 47%. Problems such as rising prices, unemployment, and increasing crime are felt more acutely in rural areas, while low wages and pensions are more pressing in cities.
  • The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 16.9%, Yurii Boiko by 12.4%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.9%, Oleh Liashko by 8.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 6.1%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 4.6%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate, and every fifth does not intend to participate in the elections.
  • Every fifth respondent believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has more than doubled. Ten percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 20% last year. Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi as the winner, and 3% believe Yurii Boiko will win. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is expressed mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Half of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 22.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 14.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 11.2%, Civic Position by 9.6%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 8.5%, the Radical Party by 8.2%, and UKROP by 6.0%. Other parties have ratings below 5%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
  • A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, and the candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 63%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-five percent choose a candidate primarily for leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 51%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical change is important, while 43% say it is more important to ensure stability in the country. Orientation toward solving both national and regional problems is equally important for 46–47% of respondents. For 51%, experience in state politics is more important, while 43% emphasize the importance of the candidate belonging to the generation of “new politicians.” This motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Muraiev.
  • Thirty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine as a result of the upcoming presidential elections will not change. One quarter believe it will improve, and the same share believe it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided.
  • According to about one third of respondents, there is a significant likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at both the local and national levels. Another approximately half allow for minor falsifications.
  • At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-seven percent take a neutral position on this issue. Fifty-three percent oppose this type of campaigning. Younger and older respondents, as well as wealthier individuals, are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region are mostly dissatisfied with the performance of both local and central authorities. Fourteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 10% with President Petro Poroshenko, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada.
  • Satisfaction with the performance of local authorities stands at 11–13%. Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration and city or village heads has practically not changed. Among rural residents, satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher.
  • About one third of respondents observe an increase in corruption both in Ukraine as a whole and in the region or at their place of residence. More than half believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Only 3–4% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Over the year, for most criteria, respondents observed mainly no change. Improvements were noted in the agricultural sector. A decline in satisfaction was recorded regarding industrial development and social protection. The condition of school education and the development of agriculture were rated the highest, while industrial development was rated the lowest.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to find a job was rated the lowest. Residents of small towns and villages assessed the level of opportunities higher than those in the regional center, with the exception of job search. In addition, younger and wealthier respondents rated all opportunities more positively.
  • Only 2% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one third assess the potential as moderate. Nearly half see low potential, while 10–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Younger and middle-aged respondents, as well as residents of the regional center, assess economic potential somewhat more positively.
  • Sixty-eight percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy to seventy-one percent feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village. The younger the respondent, the higher the level of pride expressed. Most often, respondents cite nature, at 47%, and the history of their region, at 37%, as sources of pride. Twenty-four percent are proud of regional traditions, 20–21% of local residents and landmarks, 17–18% of notable people and culture, and 10–14% of sports achievements, agriculture, and natural resources.
  • About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while nearly 30% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every sixth representative of the older generation considers themselves unhappy. Among poorer respondents, nearly half feel unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Belarus, Russia, and Poland.
  • Twenty-eight percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 4% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, two thirds stated that they do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 5% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 30% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, 9% in construction and repair, and 8% in auto services. Six percent each mentioned entertainment and leisure, tourism, and transport services, while 5% mentioned the hotel business, catering, and the beauty industry.
  • Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased somewhat from 31% to 36%. Among them, 47% are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 42% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth, at 55%, rural residents, at 42%, and respondents with average income levels, at over 40%.
  • Sixty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seventeen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 13% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
  • More than half of respondents, at 55%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Thirty percent hold the opposite view, while 15% were unable to answer.
  • Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased somewhat from 43% to 48%. Support for NATO membership remained unchanged, with 29% in favor and 47% opposed. At the same time, the number of supporters of the Customs Union decreased from 17% to 11%. Integration with the EU is supported by 40%, while 30% continue to advocate equal distance from both the EU and Russia.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv
All
All
2018
18.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the city of Kyiv from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the city. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that Kyiv residents assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation in their own city.
  • Only 8% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while at the city level almost one in five respondents consider the situation calm. At the same time, more than half of respondents view the situation both in the country and locally as tense, and every third to fourth respondent considers it critical and explosive.
  • At the same time, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development almost equally both at the national level, at 20%, and at the level of their own city, at 23%. Assessments of development directions are somewhat less critical among representatives of the middle age group.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among Kyiv residents are rather positive-neutral. About 40% believe that the situation will not change, and one in six has optimistic expectations for the future. Nevertheless, one in five respondents expects that the situation both in Ukraine and in Kyiv will worsen next year.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 73%, is the main nationwide problem according to Kyiv residents. Thirty-nine percent also indicated bribery and corruption as a problem at the state level. At the personal level, in addition to the war in the East, cited by 37%, respondents are concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 39%, and low wages and pensions, cited by 35%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, rising prices and tariffs, insufficient social protection, and the inability to receive quality medical care are more significant for the older generation, while problems related to the war in the East, corruption, unemployment, and unfavorable conditions for business development are more important for youth and people of middle age.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 20.4% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Fifteen point seven percent are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko, 13.5% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 8.4% for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 7.7% for Yurii Boiko, 6.2% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and 4.7% and 3.3% for Yevhenii Murayev and Oleh Liashko respectively. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, almost a quarter of Kyiv respondents have not decided on a candidate, and one in six does not intend to vote.
  • At the same time, almost 22% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections, and over the past year the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Seventeen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 18%. Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi as the winner. Fewer than 2% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. More than 40% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 20.8% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Thirteen point three percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 12.3% for the Servant of the People party, 7.8% for Civic Position, 6.0% for the Opposition Bloc, 5% each for Samopomich and the Nashі party, and 3.6% and 3.2% respectively for Svoboda and the Radical Party. The rating of other parties is below 3%. At the same time, almost a quarter of city residents have not decided on a party choice, and the same share does not want to vote.
  • A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, and their focus on solving the country’s problems, cited by 65%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 54% and 53% respectively, the candidate’s socio-economic program and personal leadership qualities are important, while for 27% and 26%, ideological views and the presence of a strong team are more important. Half of respondents choose a candidate primarily because of their experience in public policy, while for 38% belonging to the generation of “new” politicians is more important. The choice between the ability to ensure radical change or stability in the country split respondents almost evenly, with a slight tilt toward change, at 46% versus 40%.
  • More than a quarter of respondents, at 28%, expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. One third believe that the situation will not change, while 16% say it will worsen. Another quarter of respondents are uncertain in their forecasts. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who have not decided or do not intend to vote. Among the latter, nearly 40% expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in presidential elections is equally possible at both the national and local levels, at 45% and 43% respectively. Another third allow for minor falsifications.
  • At the same time, 16% of Kyiv respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. One in five takes a neutral position on this issue. About 60% oppose this type of campaigning. The poorest segments of the population are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • City residents assess the performance of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Thus, only 18% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly fewer, at 16%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 70% expressed dissatisfaction with the activities of central government bodies.
  • Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the city mayor has decreased, from 39% to 28%. Respondents from the younger age group are relatively more satisfied with the mayor’s performance.
  • Respondents note an increase in the level of corruption equally both in Ukraine overall and in the city, at 38–39%. More than 40% of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 6–7% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. Relatively better assessments were given to school education and road conditions. At the same time, in year-on-year dynamics, a negative trend or lack of change is observed for the absolute majority of criteria. Assessments significantly worsened in the areas of school education, healthcare, ecology, and the fight against bribery. The latter sphere was rated the worst by respondents.
  • Among opportunities in the city, respondents rated the opportunities to find a job, rest and spend leisure time, and achieve success the highest. The lowest ratings were given to living safely and engaging in entrepreneurship. Youth and wealthier respondents assess the level of opportunities most positively.
  • Eleven to thirteen percent of Kyiv residents see high economic development potential for Ukraine and their city over the next 5–10 years. Almost one third assess it as moderate. The same share assess this potential as rather low, and 9% see no prospects for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine as a whole or in Kyiv specifically. People of middle age assess growth potential somewhat more critically.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents, at 70%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, and an even larger share, at 74%, are proud to be residents of Kyiv. Most often, respondents cite the city’s history as the object of pride, at 52%. Forty percent are proud of nature, one third of culture and art, and one quarter of landmarks. One in five is proud of culinary and local traditions, and another 15–16% of local residents and sports achievements.
  • Seventy percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one in five holds the opposite view. Naturally, younger and wealthier respondents more often reported personal happiness.
  • More than half of Kyiv respondents noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of the Kyiv and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, city residents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Poland, and Russia.
  • One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. One in ten stated that they are already entrepreneurs. There are more such respondents among youth and people of middle age, as well as among those with middle and high income levels. Among those wishing to start their own business, 29% would like to engage in trade. Almost one in ten would consider doing business in IT, catering, or tourism, and 8% each in construction and repair, as well as entertainment and leisure.
  • Over the past year, the number of those expressing a desire to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 36% in 2017 and 35% in 2018. At the same time, almost half of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 39% are not ready. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among youth and people of middle age, at 51% and 37% respectively, as well as among those with middle or high incomes, at 40% and 46%.
  • The majority of respondents, at 65%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seventeen percent support granting the Russian language state status throughout Ukraine, and another 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
  • More than two thirds of respondents, at 69%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. At the same time, 17% hold the opposite view, and 13% have not decided on an answer.
  • Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, at 63%, and NATO, at 57% in 2017 and 56% in 2018, has remained almost unchanged. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector continues to lead. At the same time, against the backdrop of a decrease in the number of those choosing the EU as the preferred integration vector, from 59% to 56%, the number of supporters of Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased, from 23% to 25%. Only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.
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“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv Region
All
All
2018
18.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Kyiv region from November 16 to December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 21% consider the situation in the region calm and 53% in their own city or village. Seventy-one percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 18% as critical. In the region, 62% consider the situation tense, while in their own city 34% do so; only about 8–10% consider the local situation critical.
  • Respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement, at 15%, and that of their home region, at 16%, worse than that of their own city or village, at 25%. Residents of urban settlements and people of middle age are somewhat more optimistic in these assessments.
  • Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 17% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. The overwhelming majority, around 44%, believe that the situation will not change. Between 9% and 11% believe that the situation will worsen. One third of respondents cannot predict how the situation will change over the year. City residents are more skeptical in these assessments.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 73%, and corruption in government, cited by 54%, are the two largest nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 44%, inflation, cited by 43%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 41%. Low income, high prices, and medical services are noticeably more concerning personally for rural residents, while corruption and crime are more acute for urban residents. At the same time, at the level of national problems, political troubles such as war and corruption concern rural residents somewhat more.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 26.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 13.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.9%, Oleh Liashko by 5.3%, and Yurii Boiko by 4.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. More than one third of respondents have not decided on a candidate choice.
  • One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased more than twofold. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, compared to 19% in 2017. About 5% consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory likely, while around 2% see victory by Anatolii Hrytsenko or Oleh Liashko as likely. No more than 1% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-five percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 28.7% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. The Servant of the People party is supported by 15.8%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 10.1%, Civic Position by 8.0%, the Radical Party by 5.6%, and the Opposition Bloc by 4.0%. Other parties have ratings of no more than 3%. Every third respondent has not decided on a party choice. Every sixth respondent does not intend to vote.
  • A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, their personal leadership qualities, cited by 66%, their socio-economic program, cited by 65%, and their orientation toward solving the country’s problems, cited by 59%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, for 30% attention paid by the candidate to their region is also important. Additionally, 55% focus on the candidate’s experience in politics, while 35% stated that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important, which is more relevant for younger voters and supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. On the question of change in the country, respondents’ opinions are evenly split: 42% consider ensuring stability important, and an equal 42% consider radical change important.
  • Thirty percent believe that the situation in Ukraine as a result of the upcoming elections will not change, and another 30% believe it will improve. Only 10% speak of deterioration. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often than others note expectations of positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
  • Thirty-eight percent of respondents consider electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level likely, 30% at the regional level, and 26% in their own city or village. Another approximately 35–45% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Sixteen percent believe that there will definitely be no falsifications in their settlement.
  • At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-one percent take a neutral position, while 61% oppose this type of campaigning. Wealthier respondents are somewhat more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Thus, 14% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more, at 16%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities.
  • Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged, at 21–23%, and is lower than the level of satisfaction with the work of city or village heads, which increased over the past year from 40% to 50%. Rural residents are somewhat more satisfied with the work of local heads than urban residents.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption overall in Ukraine, at 39%, than in the region or at their place of residence, at 23–28%. Between 42% and 46% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption in the country and the region, while 10% reported a decrease in their own settlement.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres. Overall, the situation in school education, safety, and roads is assessed relatively better. In year-on-year dynamics, indicators related to safety, road conditions, ecology, agriculture, social protection, youth support, and industrial development have slightly increased, while indicators related to healthcare and the fight against corruption have declined. The latter sphere was rated the worst by respondents.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to find a job, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by wealthier and younger respondents, as well as by urban residents.
  • Only 9–10% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 36% assess the potential as moderate. Between 22% and 24% see low potential, and only 6% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Urban residents assess growth potential somewhat more positively.
  • Seventy-four percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while even more, at 77%, feel proud to be residents of their region and 78% of their city or village. People of middle age feel pride somewhat less often. Most often, the object of pride in their region is nature, cited by 61%. Forty-eight percent are proud of the history of their land, 44% of culture and art, and 37% of traditions. About 20% also feel proud of the region’s natural resources, notable people, landmarks, and local residents.
  • More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, every fourth representative of the older generation and every third from the poorest group consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of the capital. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Belarus, and to a lesser extent to Poland and Russia.
  • About 40% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 44% do not have such a desire. Ten percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start their own business, 25% indicated they would like to engage in trade, 13% in construction and repair, and 11% in tourism.
  • Over the past year, the level of desire to work abroad among residents of the region has remained almost unchanged, at 31–32%, while the number of those who definitely do not want to do so has slightly decreased from 65% to 61%. Fifty-four percent of those who want to work abroad are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 27% are not ready. Higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 50%, and wealthier respondents, at 45%.
  • Sixty-eight percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nine percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, while 19% support granting Russian state language status.
  • The absolute majority, at 77%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Thirteen percent hold the opposite view, and 10% were unable to give an answer.
  • Fifty-six percent support accession to the European Union, while 21% do not support it, compared to 27% in the previous year. Fifty-two percent support accession to NATO, while 24% oppose it, the same as in 2017. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 51%. Twenty-seven percent support maintaining equal distance from the EU and Russia. Only 5% support accession to the Customs Union, which is half as many as in 2017.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Vinnytsia Region
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All
2018
17.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Vinnytsia region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 35% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 49% in their own city or village. Nearly 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 32% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: from 39% to 47% view it as tense, and only 7–11% as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development worse, at 11%, than that of the region, at 21%, or their own city or village, at 26%. Residents of the regional center assess the situation more positively both in the country and locally, especially in their own city.
  • Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Fifteen to sixteen percent have optimistic expectations for the future, both in Ukraine and locally. More than half believe that the situation will not change, while about 16% expect deterioration next year. Residents of villages and smaller towns hold more optimistic views on this issue.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 78%, is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. Thirty-seven percent also consider bribery and corruption in government to be a problem. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 57%, rising utility tariffs, cited by 51%, and inflation, cited by 45%. At the personal level, lack of access to medical care and unemployment are felt more acutely in smaller settlements, while tariffs and low incomes are more pressing in the regional center. Among national-level problems, residents of the large city are more concerned about political issues.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 23.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Eighteen point five percent are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko, 11.4% for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 9.5% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 7.2% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 6.9% for Oleh Liashko, and 5.8% for Yurii Boiko. The rating of other candidates is below 5%. At the same time, every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
  • About 22% believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has more than doubled. Fifteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is slightly lower than the previous year’s figure of 18%. About 3.5% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-three point four percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 26% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Seventeen point eight percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 11.0% for Civic Position, 8.3% for the Servant of the People party, 7.7% for the Radical Party, 5.5% for Samopomich, and 5.3% for the Opposition Bloc. The rating of other parties is below 3%. One quarter of respondents have not decided on a party choice.
  • About half of respondents, when making a presidential choice, are guided by the candidate’s personal leadership qualities, cited by 52%, socio-economic program, cited by 51%, political experience, cited by 49%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU, cited by 48%, and the ability to ensure stability in the country, cited by 47%. At the same time, for about 35%, the candidate’s team, ideological views, ability to ensure radical changes in the country, and focus on regional problems are important. Another 39% are guided in their choice by the candidate’s belonging to the generation of “new” politicians; this motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. Although 48% support European integration, when asked about foreign policy sympathies more than one third could not give an answer, while another 17% supported a pro-Russian orientation of the candidate, most often among voters of Yurii Boiko.
  • Thirty-six percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 10% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko more often expect positive changes than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 59%, is slightly higher than in the region, at 54%, or in their city or village, at 51%. Another approximately 22% allow for minor falsifications.
  • Only 11% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twelve percent take a neutral position on this issue, while the majority, 74%, oppose this type of campaigning. City residents and respondents with lower income are more favorable toward such assistance. People of middle age assess such campaigning more critically.
  • Residents of the region assess the performance of central authorities differently. Thirty percent are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, while 64% are dissatisfied; the most positive assessments of his work come from residents of Vinnytsia. The activity of Petro Poroshenko was positively assessed by 15%, while 78% are dissatisfied, and only 4% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada, while 80% are dissatisfied. The level of satisfaction with local leaders is higher than with regional authorities: 23% are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration, which is 4 percentage points lower than last year, while 45% are satisfied with the work of local heads. Residents of Vinnytsia assess the activity of local authorities more positively.
  • Respondents more often see an increase in corruption nationwide, at 52%, than in the region, at 42%, or at their place of residence, at 35%. About 40–50% of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 2–5% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. The best assessments concern road conditions, personal safety, school education, and ecology. In year-on-year dynamics, the situation regarding road conditions has improved. The greatest deterioration is observed in ecology, the fight against corruption, and youth support. Other spheres have remained largely unchanged. Respondents speak most negatively about the fight against bribery at the local level and about youth support.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the opportunities for recreation and leisure the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. The level of all opportunities is rated highest in Vinnytsia. Younger and wealthier respondents rate the level of all opportunities higher than older and poorer respondents.
  • Five to seven percent see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess it as moderate. Another 33–34% see low potential, and 11–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine or locally. Residents of the regional center assess the development potential of their settlement somewhat better, while residents of villages assess the potential of the country and region more positively. The youngest respondents are the most optimistic in their assessments.
  • The majority of respondents, at 77%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Even more feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village, at 83% each. Most often, respondents cited the history and nature of their region as objects of pride, at 43–44%. Thirty-five percent are proud of regional culture, 30% of traditions, 22% of landmarks, and 17% each of natural resources and residents of the region.
  • More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 23% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. Nearly one third of the older generation consider themselves unhappy. Among the poorest respondents, nearly half consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr regions. Among neighboring countries, residents most often chose Belarus and Poland as close, and somewhat less often Russia.
  • Almost 30% expressed a desire to start their own business. Five percent stated that they are already entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, 60% said they do not have such aspirations. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among younger respondents, wealthier individuals, city residents, and those with a middle income level. Among those wishing to start their own business, 30% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, and about 9–10% in businesses related to entertainment and leisure or the beauty and health industry.
  • Over the past year, the number of those who expressed a desire to work abroad has slightly increased, from 33% to 37%. At the same time, 55% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 31% are not ready. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 62%, and wealthier respondents, at 51%.
  • Seventy-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twelve percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 8% support granting Russian state language status.
  • The majority of respondents, at 71%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 18% hold the opposite view and 11% have not decided.
  • Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly increased, from 59% to 62%. Support for accession to NATO has remained almost unchanged, at 48–47%, while the number of those opposed has slightly decreased, from 30% to 26%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 58%, compared to 53% in 2017. Support for Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has decreased year-on-year, from 37% to 27%. Only 3% support Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union.
Ukrainians about New Year holidays
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All
2018
17.12.2018
  • According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, nearly 70% of surveyed Ukrainians have a tradition of giving gifts on St. Nicholas Day. About 30% do not have such a tradition.
  • The largest number of supporters of the tradition of giving gifts on St. Nicholas Day is in the western regions of Ukraine, where more than 80% follow it. In the central and southern regions, about two thirds of respondents do so, while in the eastern regions this figure is about half. This tradition is more strongly supported by rural residents, young people, and more financially secure respondents.
  • Forty-three percent of respondents indicated that they believe in St. Nicholas, compared to 37% in 2016. At the same time, half of the respondents stated that they do not believe in him. The highest level of belief in St. Nicholas is observed in the western regions, where 63% believe in him, while in other regions slightly more than one third do so. The younger and more financially secure the respondents are, the more likely they are to believe in St. Nicholas. Interestingly, more than half of respondents aged 30 to 50 reported believing in St. Nicholas. Belief is also more common among women and residents of rural areas.
  • In turn, one quarter of surveyed Ukrainians believe in Ded Moroz, while almost 70% do not believe in him. Younger and more financially secure Ukrainians are more likely to believe in Ded Moroz.
  • More than 40% of respondents named New Year and Christmas as their favorite winter holidays. For another 7% of respondents, St. Nicholas Day is their favorite holiday, while 3% named Old New Year. Only 3% said that they do not like any of the listed holidays. Over the survey period, the share of those who consider New Year their favorite holiday has decreased, from 49% in 2011 to 43%.
  • In the southern, eastern, and central regions, New Year is more popular, while in the western regions, Christmas is the favorite holiday. A greater preference for New Year is observed among men, urban residents, younger respondents, and those with higher incomes. Accordingly, Christmas is more popular among rural residents, older respondents, and women.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ternopil Region
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All
2018
17.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Ternopil region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 9% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 45% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 62% in their own city or village. Almost 61% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 22% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the state of affairs are somewhat better: between 25% and 40% of respondents view the situation as tense, and only about 5% as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development worse, at 18%, than that of the region, at 31%, or their own city or village, at 38%. Residents of small towns in the region assess the direction of development of both the country and their local area less critically.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will worsen next year. More than half of respondents believe that it will not change, and almost one quarter have optimistic expectations about the future. A higher level of positive expectations is observed among residents of cities in the region.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 78%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 49%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 61%, low wages and pensions, cited by 57%, and rising prices and inflation, cited by 55%.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 21.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Fifteen point seven percent would vote for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 12.6% for Petro Poroshenko, 10.9% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 7.7% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 6.8% for Oleh Liashko, 5.5% for Oleksandr Shevchenko, 4.3% for Andrii Sadovyi, and 3.0% for Ruslan Koshulynskyi. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
  • About 20% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections, compared to 13% in 2017. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, compared to 17% in 2017. About 4% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Nearly 33% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 23.7% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Fifteen point seven percent are ready to vote for Civic Position, 11.9% for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 10.5% for Svoboda, 9.3% for the Servant of the People party, 6.2% for UKROP, 6.1% for Samopomich, and 5.4% for the Radical Party. The rating of other parties is below 4%. At the same time, nearly one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party choice.
  • Orientation of the candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 83%, and the candidate’s personal leadership qualities, cited by 65%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 40% stated that ensuring stability is more important to them. Fifty-six percent choose a candidate rather because of their experience in state politics, while for 40% it is more important that the candidate belongs to the generation of “new” politicians. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, Oleksandr Shevchenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi. For 51%, the socio-economic program of the candidate is important, while 42% stated that ideological views matter more to them. Orientation toward solving the country’s problems is a motive for choice for 55% of respondents, while for 36% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems.
  • Forty-three percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Twenty-eight percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 9% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleh Liashko more often expect positive changes than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 36%, is higher than at the local level, at 9%. Another approximately 40–55% allow for minor falsifications.
  • Only 7% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Fourteen percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 70% oppose this type of campaigning.
  • Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Sixteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 11% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 4% with the activity of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
  • Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has slightly decreased, from 26% to 22%. Forty-six percent stated that they are satisfied with the activity of the city or village head. The level of dissatisfaction with local heads among rural residents is lower than among residents of cities in the region.
  • Respondents more often see an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. Forty to fifty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–7% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. At the same time, in year-on-year dynamics, assessments for most criteria have either improved or remained unchanged. The best dynamics are observed in ecology, road conditions, and agriculture. Respondents rate the situation in school education, safety, and ecology relatively better. The worst assessments concern industrial development, youth support, and social protection.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to relax and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, and finding work are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center and small towns, while living safely is rated higher in villages.
  • Respondents rate the economic development potential of Ukraine, at 17%, higher than that of the region, at 10%, and their own city or village, at 9%, over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the economic potential of the country and localities at a medium level. About one quarter see low potential. Three to four percent see no opportunities for economic growth in Ukraine and the region. Twelve percent see no growth potential for their settlement, most often in small towns and villages.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents, at 78%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy-nine percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and 82% of their city or village. Older respondents demonstrate a somewhat higher level of pride. Most often, respondents cited nature, at 45%, regional traditions, at 43%, and history, at 42%, as objects of pride. Thirty-one percent are proud of culture and art, 25% of local residents, 16% of landmarks, 15% of natural resources, 13% of prominent figures of the region, and 10% of cuisine and culinary traditions.
  • Seventy-three percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 15% hold the opposite view. Residents of cities, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every sixth rural resident and every fifth representative of the older generation considers themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and, to a lesser extent, Belarus.
  • Thirty-two percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Four percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among city residents, younger, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, nearly one quarter stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 34% would like to engage in trade, 15% in farming, 13% in construction and repair, and 11% in car service.
  • Over the past year, the number of those expressing a desire to work abroad has slightly decreased, from 45% to 42%. At the same time, 50% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Traditionally, a higher level of migration intentions is observed among youth, at 65%.
  • An absolute majority, at 95%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Only 3% support granting the Russian language any official status.
  • An absolute majority of respondents, at 92%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 2% hold the opposite view.
  • Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly increased, from 77% to 83%. Seventy percent continue to support accession to NATO. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 73%, while 14% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Lviv Region
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All
2018
17.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Lviv region from November 16 to December 7, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region and the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 43% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 59% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Nearly 70% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 23% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 30% and 43% of respondents consider the situation tense, and only about 5–7% consider it critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (25%) than that of the region (37%). Almost half of respondents note a positive situation in the settlement where they live. Relatively better assessments of the direction of development of both the country and the region are observed among residents of small towns.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the situation in the country and the region, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only one in five to one in six respondents believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. Almost half believe that the situation will not change, while one in five has optimistic expectations for the future.
  • The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (79%) and bribery and corruption in government (53%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, rising utility tariffs (50% each), and rising prices for basic goods (49%). Rising prices for basic goods are felt more acutely in rural areas and other towns of the region.
  • Among those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections, the leaders of the presidential rating are Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 16.7% are ready to support, Petro Poroshenko with 15.5%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko with 14.8%. Andrii Sadovyi would receive 10.4% of the vote, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 9.9%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi 6.8%, Oleksandr Shevchenko 6.1%, and Oleh Liashko 4.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
  • One quarter of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will win the presidential election. Seventeen percent are confident in the victory of Yuliia Tymoshenko. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of the victory of both candidates has doubled. About 6% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is primarily shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • The negative rating is led by Yurii Boiko. Half of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings among those who have decided and intend to participate in elections, Batkivshchyna leads with 18%, followed by Civic Position with 16.6% and Samopomich with 15%. European Solidarity would receive 13.4%, Servant of the People 7.3%, and UKROP and Svoboda 6.6% each. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
  • Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (86%) and the candidate’s personal leadership qualities (62%) are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 42% say ensuring stability is more important. Fifty-one percent choose a candidate primarily because of their socio-economic program, while 41% consider ideological views more important. Fifty-three percent emphasize the importance of a candidate’s focus on solving national problems, while 41% focus on solving both national and regional problems. For 54%, experience in state politics is more important, while 38% highlight belonging to the generation of “new” politicians. This latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk.
  • Thirty-one percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-eight percent believe the situation will not change, and only 12% think it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (50%) is higher than at the local level (21%). About 40% allow for minor fraud at the local level, and one third at the national level. At the settlement level, one quarter believe elections will be fair.
  • Nine percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Seventy-one percent are opposed to this form of campaigning. Less affluent respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Twenty percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share are satisfied with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 10% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are found in rural areas.
  • Over the past year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has increased (from 22% to 35%), as has satisfaction with the work of city or village heads (from 38% to 54%). Satisfaction with the activity of the regional administration is higher among residents of small towns.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Between 40% and 50% believe the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–8% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are generally dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were given to school education, road conditions, and public safety. Over the year, most indicators show positive dynamics or no change, with the greatest improvement seen in road conditions and safety. A decline was recorded in social protection. The worst-rated area is the fight against bribery.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and for finding a job the highest, and entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure and success are rated higher by residents of the regional center, opportunities to find a job and engage in entrepreneurship by residents of Lviv and small towns, and safety by rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
  • About 7–9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. More than 40% assess it as medium. More than one third see low potential, and 6–9% see no prospects for economic growth at all. Residents of the regional center and younger respondents assess growth potential more positively.
  • The absolute majority of respondents (84%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (87%) and of their city or village (88%). The older the respondent, the higher the level of pride. Most often, respondents cited local traditions and regional history (53–54%) as sources of pride. Culture and art are mentioned by 44%, nature by 31%, landmarks by 25%, prominent people by 17%, local residents and cuisine by 14% each, and natural resources and science and education by 10% each.
  • Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 14% think otherwise. Urban residents, younger, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. Conversely, one in five representatives of the older generation and one in four among the poorest consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel the greatest closeness to Poland, and somewhat less to Belarus and Slovakia.
  • One third expressed a desire to start their own business. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. At the same time, nearly half did not express such a desire. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 28% would like to engage in trade, 19% in construction, 15% in tourism, 13% in entertainment and leisure, and 11% in public catering.
  • One third of respondents expressed a desire to work abroad. Over the past year, this share has not changed. At the same time, 55% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 27% do not plan to do so. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%) and wealthier respondents (44%).
  • Ninety percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seven percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and only 1% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
  • The absolute majority of respondents (92%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 5% hold the opposite opinion.
  • Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to NATO has slightly increased (from 73% to 78%). Support for accession to the European Union stands at 85% (82% in 2017). Among various directions of foreign economic integration, 80% support accession to the EU, 12% support equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 1% support accession to the Customs Union.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Khmelnytskyi Region
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All
2018
17.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Khmelnytskyi region from November 16 to December 5, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 9% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 36% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 54% in their own city or village. Forty-six percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 41% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the state of affairs are somewhat better: between 35% and 47% of respondents view the situation as tense, and only about 10% as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse, at 10%, than that of the region, at 24%, or especially their own city or village, at 40%. More optimistic assessments of the direction of local development are observed among residents of the regional center.
  • Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. From 20% to 24% believe that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve. About half believe that the situation in general will not change. Twenty-two percent believe that the situation will worsen in Ukraine, while with regard to the local level such respondents range from 11% to 14%.
  • The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 84%, is the main nationwide problem according to respondents. Thirty-six percent also consider corruption in government to be a national problem, and 32% each point to low income and unemployment. At the personal level, respondents are most concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 61%, rising utility tariffs, cited by 56%, and inflation, cited by 48%. Among personal problems, residents of Khmelnytskyi city are more concerned about tariffs and inflation, while for rural residents more significant problems are low income, corruption, the military conflict, and unemployment.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 23.1% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. About 14% are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko, 8.0% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 6.6% for Oleh Liashko, 5.2% for Oleksandr Shevchenko, 4.9% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 3.7% for Yurii Boiko, and 3.4% for Ruslan Koshulynskyi. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, almost every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
  • About 23% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is slightly less than last year, when it was 18%. No more than 4% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 37% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 22.4% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Eleven point three percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 11.0% for Civic Position, 9.3% for Svoboda, 6.8% for the Radical Party, 6.1% each for UKROP and the Servant of the People party, 4.2% for the Agrarian Party, 4.0% for Vidrodzhennia, 3.8% for Samopomich, and 2.7% for the Opposition Bloc. The rating of other parties is below 2%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
  • Orientation of the candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 69%, focus on solving the country’s problems, cited by 63%, the socio-economic program, cited by 61%, and experience in state politics, cited by 59%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Political experience plays a smaller role for supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, as well as for younger respondents. For 55%, the personal leadership qualities of the candidate are important, while 40% stated that the presence of a strong team is more important to them. The choice between ensuring stability and radical change divided respondents equally.
  • Thirty-five percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-eight percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 11% state that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often than others expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 58%, is higher than in the region, at 40%, or in their city or village, at 32%. Another approximately 30–45% allow for minor falsifications, while 21% believe that there will definitely be no falsifications in their settlement.
  • At the same time, 22% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 44% oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of cities are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Twelve percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 16% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the activity of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
  • Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration slightly decreased, from 30% to 25%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads increased noticeably, from 45% to 58%. The level of satisfaction with the work of the regional administration and local heads among residents of the regional center is higher than among residents of small towns and villages.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption nationwide, cited by 43%, than in the region or at their place of residence, cited by 25–26%. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5% reported a decrease in corruption nationwide, 9% in the region, and 15% in their own city or village.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services, with the exception of school education, where a relative majority are satisfied. In year-on-year dynamics, most indicators show either negative trends or no change. The assessment of safety has slightly improved, while ecology and social protection have worsened. Respondents expressed the most negative views regarding the fight against bribery at the local level.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to relax and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. Younger, wealthier respondents and residents of Khmelnytskyi city rate nearly all opportunities higher.
  • About 9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, and 5–6% for the region and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess this potential at a medium level. About one third see low potential, and 9–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine or locally. Rural residents assess growth potential in the country and the region more positively, while residents of the regional center assess potential in their own settlement more positively.
  • The majority of respondents, at 75%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy-one percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and an even larger share, 81%, to be residents of their own city or village. Most often, respondents chose nature, at 52%, as the object of pride in their region. Thirty-four percent are proud of their region’s history, 26% of local traditions, and 24% each of culture and local residents.
  • Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, 30% of representatives of the older generation and 36% of low-income respondents consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Vinnytsia, Ternopil, and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and Belarus.
  • One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among city residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 35% said they would like to engage in trade.
  • Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad remained at the same level, at 35–36%. At the same time, 49% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 43% are not. A higher level of migration intentions is observed among youth, at 58%, residents of small towns, at 42%, and individuals with middle income levels, at 40%.
  • Eighty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and 3% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
  • An absolute majority of respondents, at 78%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Fifteen percent hold the opposite view, and another 7% hesitated in their assessment.
  • Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly decreased, from 63% to 61%, as has support for NATO accession, from 54% to 52%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 59%. The number of those supporting Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased, from 20% to 29%. The number of supporters of accession to the Customs Union has decreased from 9% to 3%.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Rivne Region
All
All
2018
14.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Rivne region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 30% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 40% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 33% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 40% and 50% of respondents consider the situation tense, and only about 10% consider it critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (17%) than that of the region (20%) or their city or village (27%). Residents of rural areas are particularly critical in assessing the direction of development of both the country and their locality. Among age groups, representatives of the middle generation are the most critical.
  • At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe that the situation will not change, while one in five has optimistic expectations for the future.
  • The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (64%) and bribery and corruption in government (41%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (45%), rising utility tariffs (40%), and the war in Donbas (36%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 22.5% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 16.4%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 15.1%, Oleh Liashko by 7.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.3%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 6.2%, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 6.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 5%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
  • More than one quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has nearly doubled. As last year, 16% are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko. About 8% believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will win. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
  • The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 40% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Servant of the People party is supported by 16.8%, European Solidarity by 11.8%, the Radical Party by 7.9%, Civic Position by 7.8%, UKROP by 6.0%, and Svoboda by 4.4%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
  • Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (87%), focus on solving the country’s problems (71%), and a socio-economic program (65%) are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 57%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 40% say that ensuring stability is more important. Fifty-six percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 36% consider the presence of a strong team more important. The choice between experience in state politics and belonging to the generation of “new” politicians divides respondents evenly. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
  • Thirty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Forty-two percent believe the situation will not change, and only 10% think it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (46%) is higher than at the local level (33%). About 40% allow for minor falsifications.
  • At the same time, 17% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Eighteen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Sixty-three percent oppose this form of campaigning. More favorable attitudes toward candidates distributing assistance are found in rural areas and among poorer respondents.
  • Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Eighteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share are satisfied with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are found in rural areas.
  • Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has somewhat decreased (from 28% to 22%), as has satisfaction with the work of city or village heads (from 42% to 38%). Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Over the year, most indicators show negative dynamics or no change. An exception is road conditions, the assessment of which improved over the year. The situation in school education is assessed relatively better. The worst evaluations concern the fight against bribery at the local level.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and for living safely the highest, and entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure, success, and finding a job are rated higher by residents of the regional center, opportunities for entrepreneurship by residents of small towns, and living safely by rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
  • About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess it as medium. Only about one third see low potential, and 7–8% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both in Ukraine and locally. Residents of the regional center assess growth potential more critically.
  • The absolute majority of respondents (84%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (85%) and of their city or village (87%). Most often, respondents cited nature (49%) as a source of pride for their region. Thirty percent are proud of the history of their land, 20% of local traditions and residents, 18% of culture and art, 14% of natural resources, and 12% of sports achievements.
  • Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 20% think otherwise. Urban residents, younger, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in five rural residents and one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy.
  • Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv and Volyn regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel closest to Belarus and Poland.
  • Almost 40% expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 36% would like to engage in trade, 12–13% in services and leisure as well as farming, and 10–11% in construction, tourism, and the beauty and wellness industry.
  • Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has slightly increased (from 36% to 41%). At the same time, 60% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%), residents of the regional center (46%), and wealthier respondents (45%).
  • Eighty-seven percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and 3% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
  • The absolute majority of respondents (86%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite opinion.
  • Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has increased (from 62% to 72%), as has support for NATO accession (from 48% to 59%). Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads (60%), 26% support equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Odesa Region
All
All
2018
14.12.2018
  • Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Odesa region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
  • Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
  • Only 3% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 19% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 42% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-two percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 40% as critical. Half of respondents assess the situation in the region as tense, while another 21% consider it critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own city are better: 38% see it as tense and 14% as critical.
  • Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (9%) than that of the region (14%) or their city or village (23%). Residents of the regional center are less critical in their assessments of the direction of development of both the country and their locality.
  • General expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. About 40% believe that it will not change, while about one quarter have pessimistic expectations about the future. Between 22% and 23% were unable to answer this question.
  • The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (62%), lack of jobs and unemployment (40%), and bribery and corruption in government (40%) are the three main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (65%), low wages and pensions (56%), and rising prices for basic goods (55%). Problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas, while rising utility tariffs are felt more acutely in cities.
  • The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 19.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.5%, Yurii Boiko by 15.2%, Yevhenii Muraiiev by 8.6%, Vadym Rabinovych by 7.2%, Oleh Liashko by 6.6%, Petro Poroshenko by 5.4%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, approximately every fifth resident of the region does not wish to vote, and every seventh has not decided on a candidate.
  • Nineteen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Six percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (compared to 16% in 2017). About 6% believe that Yurii Boiko will win, and 5% believe in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, and Petro Poroshenko.
  • The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Three quarters of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
  • In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.3% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Opposition Bloc is supported by 18.7%, Servant of the People by 15.3%, the Nashy party by 8.6%, Za Zhyttia by 7.1%, the Radical Party by 6.5%, European Solidarity by 5.1%, and Civic Position by 4.3%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, one quarter of residents of the region do not wish to vote, and every seventh has not decided.
  • A candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country (61%) and their socio-economic program (62%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-three percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 39% consider the presence of a strong team more important. For 51%, a candidate’s experience in state politics is important, while 41% say that belonging to the generation of “new” politicians is more important. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Muraiiev. A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems is a motive for choice for 52% of respondents, while for 42% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving the problems of both the country and the region. For 38%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important, while for 31% cooperation with Russia is more important; one third have not decided on this issue.
  • Twenty-three percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while the same share hold the opposite view. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
  • According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (63%) is higher than at the local level (54% in the region and 46% in the city or village). About 25% allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
  • At the same time, 22% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty percent take a neutral position on this issue. Forty-four percent oppose this form of campaigning. Older and poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
  • Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Only 4–6% are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
  • Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has almost not changed (from 24% to 26%). Fifty-three percent, as last year, stated that they are satisfied with the activity of the city or village head. Satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher among residents of cities and the regional center than among rural residents.
  • Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. About 40% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 3–5% reported a decrease in corruption.
  • The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Over the year, no changes are observed for most indicators. Only assessments of agricultural development and road conditions have improved. The situation with school education, road conditions, and agriculture is assessed relatively better. The worst evaluations concern the fight against bribery at the local level and industrial development.
  • Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation the highest, and opportunities for entrepreneurship and living safely the lowest. Residents of the regional center, as well as younger and wealthier respondents, rate all opportunities higher.
  • About 6% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess it as medium. At the same time, about one third see low potential, and 15–17% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both in Ukraine and locally. Younger and middle-aged respondents assess growth potential more critically.
  • More than half of respondents (60%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 28% hold the opposite view. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (72%) and of their city or village (81%). Most often, respondents cited nature (46%), history (43%), and local residents (40%) as sources of pride for their region. Thirty percent are proud of regional culture and art, 27% of traditions, 25% of landmarks, 22% of cuisine and culinary traditions, 13% of natural resources, and 11% of prominent people.
  • Two thirds consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one quarter hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy, and among the poor this share reaches 43%.
  • Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Mykolaiv region. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often chose Belarus and Russia, as well as Moldova, as being close.
  • Almost 26% expressed a desire to start their own business. Ten percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while half stated that they do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one third reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, and 7–9% in public catering, tourism, construction and repairs, car service, transport services, the beauty and wellness industry, entertainment, and leisure.
  • Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has almost not changed (from 28% to 30%). At the same time, 53% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (46%), residents of the regional center (33%), and wealthier respondents (43%).
  • Forty-one percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, 29% support granting it official status in certain regions, and 26% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
  • Forty-seven percent of respondents do not consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 28% hold the opposite view. One quarter were unable to answer this question.
  • The number of opponents of the pro-Western vector exceeds the number of supporters. At the same time, over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU has slightly increased (from 24% to 29%), as has support for NATO accession (from 15% to 18%). The number of supporters of accession to the Customs Union has decreased (from 27% to 18%). At the same time, the share of those who support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West has increased (from 39% to 45%).

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